The Difference Between Push Polling and Honest Polling

After trashing the most recent bit of Conservative push polling, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at a much more honest poll.

According to Environics, as of December, the Liberals and Conservatives are within 2% of each other nationally, and the supported as distributed nationally.

The Conservatives are ahead overall, but not by much, and behind in both Ontario and Quebec.

On the Prairies, except for Alberta, although the CPC is ahead of the Liberals and NDP, it's not the overwhelming support one might expect, and in BC, it's pretty much a dead heat with a minor difference between the Liberals and the CPC.

Of particular interest is the finding that Stephen Harper still gets fairly high marks as candidate for Prime Minister outside of Quebec, but is not as strong in Quebec.

The key thing that this poll shows is not that one party or another has a definitive lead, or high approval ratings, but rather that there is some signs of voter shift happening already, with Liberal party gains coming from both the CPC and NDP parties, and a little bit of drift from the undecided vote as well.

Unlike a push poll, this doesn't show a 'spin-doctored' view of the numbers, instead it simply tells the story through the numbers. Yes, the CPC government is a bit ahead, but no, they aren't all that strong nationally. I suspect that if you take Alberta out of the mix, the overall balance may not even be 2%, and the CPC desperately needs to make significant gains outside of Alberta - and they don't appear to be doing so.