China Relations and Electoral Polls

We have a bit of a grab bag from the news this morning.

1) Canada - China Relations

After doing his best to completely piss off China at the APEC summit in November, we now find Harper trying to kiss and make up with the Chinese.

To me, this underscores one of the key problems with Harper - the man doesn't listen. He'll blunder along like his idol in the White House today until someone slaps him about and points out just how incredibly asinine he's behaving. (The difference is that Harper's at least capable of comprehending when he's being spanked verbally, and occasionally tries to change his tune)

He maintained that his government can improve economic relations with China while retaining the right to criticize its human-rights record.

“As Canadians, we do carry our values and perspectives beyond Canada to the rest of the world,” he said. “We talk candidly about democratic governance, about the importance of the rule of law. ... Open discussion and engagement in these broader issues should not conflict with commercial interests.”

But China watchers warn that Ottawa cannot continue to publicly hector Beijing on human rights and assume that trade won't be affected.

China has shown clearly over the last fifty years that it is far more likely to change as a result of engagement rather than pressure from outside. Historically, China has always been a "cultural island" nation that stands very much on its own. While the outside world can influence Chinese government, it will do so by engaging and fostering change gradually. The testosterone laden approach favored by Harper and his gang is unlikely to succeed.

2) Election Polls

After some rather inconclusive looking polls done over the Christmas period, we have the first New Years' Poll.

While it shows both parties pretty closely matched, the pollster makes a few interesting comments:

"It's almost exactly like 2004, which doesn't augur very well for the Conservatives," Mr. Gregg said. "It continues to show they have not made any inroads in the key constituencies that they have to, in order to get a majority."
...
Mr. Gregg attributed most of the Tory drop to the party's performance in Quebec. In that province, 15 per cent of voters said they support the Conservatives, down from 25 per cent on election day, when the party won 10 seats. The Liberals would get 25 per cent of Quebec votes were an election held today, up from 21 per cent at the election, while the Bloc Québécois would win 46 per cent, up four points.
...
Prime Minister Stephen Harper must also find a way to appeal to Canadian voters between the ages of 18 and 34, with whom he is not popular, Mr. Gregg said.

The poll also suggests Ontario's view of the Tories is worsening. In that key battleground, the Liberals lead the Tories 45 per cent to 32 per cent, a gap that has grown from five points on election day. The New Democrats have dropped four points from election day to 15 per cent. The Greens are at 9 per cent, up from five at the election.

I'm not completely surprised by this. Having had more than a few opportunities to observe Harper as both lobbyist and later as a politician, he fits in well with the classical Reform/Alliance mentality from Alberta. No matter how you look at it, that particular political stance has very limited traction outside of Alberta. (and I wonder just how much traction it really has in Alberta, and how much is simply a hangover "fear vote" against whatever Central Canada is likely to vote for?)