The Rumour Mill

The rumour mill is starting to gear up on both the Federal and Provincial scenes this week.

Federally, rumours are beginning to swirl around a fall election.

I've wondered the same thing, with the Conservatives running around doing their nominations like crazy lately, but I've chosen not to comment on it until today. I suspect that if Harper triggers an election, it will be little more than a power grab. With the CPC having slipped back to Nov. 2005 levels in the polls, I'm not sure that it's a "slam dunk" for them to get a majority right now. (The fact that the Liberals are regaining lost ground without a clear leader is telling, I think)

It seems unlikely to me that the opposition parties are going to band together to bring the government down - making Harper's declaration of anything and everything a "confidence matter" little more than a way to build up some "ammunition" which he can use to criticize his opponents during an election. ("If we're so bad, why did you support X, or Y or Z when a vote against it would have toppled the government?"). It's a fairly obvious tactic that he's setting up.

Ottawa's warming up as the weather cools down, it would seem:

The selloff of Canada's assets to foreign companies is to be expanded

Liberals are focusing on Harper's "support" and weakening it

Expect pressure to be applied to increase welfare supports - especially in light of government surpluses across the board in Canada.

Harper's legislation around the softwood deal is due to come before the house - I imagine that unless the Conservatives slip some smelly little clause into the legislation that makes it utterly untenable, it will proceed through the house.

Last, but not least, Jason Kenney is going to find himself the deserving target of a lot of verbal fire. It will be interesting to see if HarperCrit has the gonads to ask Kenney to step aside.

...

Provincially, I've heard a few rumours that Ted Morton is planning to re-introduce Bill 208 - his little "legalize being a bigot" legislation - possibly in an amended form later this week.

Since there is only one or two days available for private members bills during this sitting, we'll see what happens.

Notably, having reviewed the bill itself, I think it would ultimately fail when challenged before our federal courts - its wording appears to substantially infringe upon areas of federal jurisdiction, as well as the Charter of Rights itself.

[Update]
I see that the Senate isn't willing to be pushed along by Harper's tactics in his efforts to push through his "accountability" act - which really does little to address such issues.

[/Update]