I have suspected for some time that the decision around which direction Canada was going to go in terms of its next generation Air Force has been made, if not formally announced.
The latest brick just fell into place, with Stephen Fuhr being appointed to head up the new Defence Investment Agency. Fuhr has been critical of the F-35 for a long time, so I can suspect that will play _a_ role in where things are going next.
While I have my own personal opinions about the F-35 vs Gripen discussion, this is more about the political game that is playing out.
First, consider that Canada has decided to purchase the Saab GlobalEye surveillance aircraft. The GlobalEye just happens to be based on the Bombardier Global 6500 aircraft, giving a boost to Canadian manufacturing as well as providing a fairly obvious level of cover as Saab and Bombardier would need to ramp up collaboration. This provides reasonable cover for setting up the supply chains for Gripen manufacturing with Bombardier leading the effort.
Then add to that Saab's very generous terms for the Gripen which would essentially serve as a restart of Canada's military aerospace program - creating jobs as well as providing a decent aircraft that appears generally well suited to Canada's needs.
Meanwhile, the F-35 is a high cost aircraft with remarkably poor availability and high maintenance requirements, and Canada looking down the business end of increasing expense just to acquire the F-35, it's not hard to understand why Canada might just decide to pivot towards spending the same money on a platform that will create jobs and industry here in Canada.
My guess is that the Gripen decision has been made, but not announced. Saab and Bombardier will be quietly setting up the needed manufacturing infrastructure in parallel with the setup needed for the GlobalEye program.
The one major "fly in the ointment" here is the Saab using a license-built engine designed by GE, which theoretically could mean that the US could veto any sale to Canada through that license agreement. However, this is potentially offset by Saab adapting the Gripen airframe to accept a slightly more powerful engine from Rolls Royce, bypassing the American veto entirely.
Politically, the Carney government has shown us that it has both the internal discipline to take on a project like this without telling anyone who doesn't need to know about it, and the political will to do it even if it angers the current occupant of the White House.
Personally, at this point in time, if the US wants to make everything transactional and volatile, it would seem to me quite reasonable to walk away from the F-35 program even if it is a technically superior aircraft. I'd rather have an aircraft that meets Canada's needs without being dependent on the mood in Washington.
