Sunday, August 13, 2006

I Give The CeaseFire 24 Hours

After reading a bit more about UN Resolution 1701, and the Israeli and Hezbollah comments, I don't give it a whole lot of time before it collapses.

As this article from CNN points out, there are some serious problems with how the Israelis and Hezbollah are looking upon this "agreement":

Israel has made clear it will not immediately pull out, but will wait until other forces arrive to prevent the Hezbollah militia from again taking over the area on Israel's northern border.

"We ask that there not be a vacuum, in other words that there not be a situation in which the IDF exits and there remains a vacuum there and the Hezbollah returns to those places where it left, or alternately remains in those places and nothing actually happens," Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said Sunday.


Meanwhile, Hezbollah vows:

However, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said on TV that Hezbollah would continue fighting as long as Israeli soldiers remained in Lebanon.


It strikes me that with today's extreme violence, I imagine it won't take anything much to trigger further violence in the area, with both Hezbollah and Israel pointing fingers of blame at one another. I doubt the ceasefire will hold long enough for the UN to agree upon the composition of forces (and role) for an enforced neutral zone.

I'm also rather perturbed that the proposed neutral zone is purely in Lebanese territory, and does not extend into Israel's northern regions. It strikes me that in this conflict the neutral zone needs to overlap the territory of both nations.

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