Treading On Thin Ice

I've said before that you don't handle China by trying to push them around.

I thought that Harper's handling of the recent visit of The Dalai Lama to Canada would ruffle some feathers in China. Sure enough, it did.

The Chinese embassy in Canada confirmed Thursday that Robert Wright had been “called in by the Chinese Foreign Ministry for a representation.”

No details were provided but it's believed the move was designed as a dressing down of Canada for the red-carpet treatment accorded to the Tibetan spiritual leader, regarded by China as a separatist who is undermining its national sovereignty.

The Department of Foreign Affairs has refused to discuss the issue. Repeated calls and e-mails from The Globe and Mail asking whether a protest had been lodged with Mr. Wright were met with delays and promises from the departmental spokesman to call back, but no confirmation of the news.

Okay, if HarperCreep has sent out orders to STFU about it to Foreign Affairs, that probably means the Chinese have started returning the favour when it comes to Harper's posturing and blowhard rhetoric about human rights.

The Dalai Lama repeated in Canada this week that he is seeking only autonomy for Tibet within a sovereign China and is not interested in separation.

The summoning of Mr. Wright mirrors Chinese actions in response to recent similar face-to-face meetings between the Dalai Lama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President George W. Bush.

German Ambassador Michael Schaefer was called to the Chinese Foreign Ministry before the meeting with Ms. Merkel took place in September, while China lodged its protest with U.S. Ambassador Clark Randt a day after Mr. Bush's meeting with the Dalai Lama, who was given the Congressional Gold Medal.

Now, there's a slight difference between "lodging a protest" and what the Chinese are doing here. I suspect after Harper's lecturing of Chinese leadership on human rights issues, China's more than a little ticked off right now.

Dermot Travis, executive director of the Canada-Tibet Committee, said he believed “China is posturing at best” and that Beijing's latest move would have little real impact. “I noticed that Bombardier yesterday was awarded a $590-million deal in China to supply rail cars to China,” Mr. Travis said.

Nice attempt to minimize things here, but Mr. Travis is quietly ignoring something - China needs those rail cars, and any country that it would buy them from has been hospitable to the Dalai Lama. China's gearing up for the Olympics in 2010 - they desperately need to complete a plethora of infrastructure projects, and starting a diplomatic / trade war isn't going to help them. Once they are closer to the Olympics, then you can expect China to get a whole lot harsher about things.

Oh yes, let's not forget the increasing signs of economic weakening in the US economy, which will inevitably bring Canada along for the ride to some degree - by 2010, the world economic power picture may well look quite different than it does today.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - China does not respond to the kind of strongarm tactics that Harper seems to want to use. It never has, and likely never will. Canada trying to play "strong man" in this situation is almost laughable, as we are a relatively small nation.