The pollster tries to sweep it away:
Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, said it appears that most of the Grits jump in support, and subsequent slump for the Tories, is a result of the Conservatives declining a remarkable 23 points in Alberta.
"It's the Stelmach effect. We assume people differentiate between the federal and provincial parties even if they have the same name. I think what we see in Alberta is a branding effect because there is no great incentive to be against the Harper government in that province," said Bricker.
Actually, Bricker is missing something significant in that assessment. Quality of life in Alberta has taken quite a hit in the last few years - especially in the major urban centers. When combined with softening support for Stelmach's PC's, and a series of scandals in Ottawa, you could easily see a drop in the support for the federal Conservatives - the Harper government has been pretty much "taking Alberta for granted" - not a wise thing to do in politics.
(Equally - I don't know that I'd make much of this poll per se - it could well be little more than a "blip")
No comments:
Post a Comment