Friday, January 04, 2008

The Iowa Caucus Votes

I'm not sure what to make of last night's nomination caucuses in Iowa.

The outcome was surprising for both the Democrats and the Republicans.

Mike Huckabee appears to have come out of nowhere and managed to pick up the evangelical vote, pulling the rug out from underneath Mitt Romney. I suspect in this case that what has happened is Huckabee has managed to style himself as "the next evangelical candidate" late in a race where many Republicans were wondering if there was an "acceptably evangelical" candidate in the list.

Meanwhile, the democrats had their own drama, with Barack Obama coming out ahead in Iowa, and Hillary Clinton coming in third - behind John Edwards. Surprising to say the least.

I'm beginning to suspect that what is emerging here is a political division in the US that will fracture ultimately along religious/secular lines, with the Republicans slowly becoming the party dominated by evangelical Christians, and the Democrats picking up most of the rest, but possibly leaving room for a third party to emerge in the coming years. The last round of Presidential Primaries showed some similar divisions, and it seems that the evangelical vote that currently seems to have the power in the Republicans may well become the party power establishment in the years to come.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wait for the New Hampshire primary. The results could be quite different.

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