Musings

What follows is highly speculative - I'm basically following a somewhat random line of thought that started on the weekend. It's not fact, it's speculation based on the shape of affairs in the world today

I'm beginning to suspect that the world's political structure is in the early stages of a significant upheaval - the out come of which I'm not at all sure what it will be.

First, consider the gradual, subtle alterations to the notion of sovereignty and the concept of the Nation-State.

Arguably, the events of the 1990s - whether we are talking about Bosnia, Rwanda, or Kuwait have resulted in the international community taking a much more interventionist view of affairs in other nations. Rwanda in particular posed a nasty little conundrum, as the the problems were clearly internal to the country, and yet the world community felt obliged to take steps to moderate the situation (however unsuccessfully). The ethical conflict that emerged was that of respecting national sovereignty versus protecting the civilian population from a vicious tribal war. The UN resolutions more recently have reflected a "Duty to Protect" philosophy that considerably alters the notion of what sovereignty means.

Then, we have the emerging political and economic blocs in the world - the European Union being the poster child for efforts at political and economic unification in North America, and similar economic treaties being discussed in Asia these days. The EU has proceeded down the path of unifying both political and trade matters - with "open" borders, common currency and a central legislative body. NAFTA is a bit more insidious, undermining the concept of nationality by purely "trade" topics - whether it is provisions that permit foreign companies to sue governments for "loss of potential revenue", or governments trying to dictate internal policy to each other through trade disputes (e.g. softwood lumber). These cross border "treaties" create a sense of "entitlement" on the part of various entities to intervene directly in the affairs of another nation.

Just to add to the fun, let's throw into the mix the transnational corporation. Directly, or indirectly, these behemoths span the globe and international borders. A series of court rulings in various countries has created a legal environment where these businesses (some of which have budgets bigger than many governments in the world), live in a space where they are neither bound by the laws of the countries in which they operate (or, only to a limited degree) nor do they feel bound by those national interests. The amount of money that these companies represent also means that they have a fair bit of lobbying clout with individual governments.

These factors alone, in my opinion, suggest that the notion of Nation-State is beginning to break down. It seems to be in the process of being undermined in particular by matters of trade, and the influence of trade upon government policy.

Then, in North America, {although I imagine the same issues exist elsewhere} we have significant signs of breakdown in our political systems. Election campaigns have become about "big money" and who can raise the most of it. Even with "campaign finance reforms", we find people trying to subvert the rules - or at least the spirit of them. In the United States, there are significant concerns over the use of "electronic voting" machines, and the potential for vote fraud. Early signs of trouble emerged in Florida in the 2000 Presidential vote - a sore spot for many on all sides, with accusations still flying about today. Arguments in Canada over the role and structure of the Senate have been ongoing for decades, with no end in sight - "democratic reforms" of one sort or another are being discussed all over the place.

The legislative attempts to address problems that have emerged in our democracies have been tepid at best, since the power players involved are the ones that would be harmed the most by these changes. The loopholes and escape clauses that appear in such legislation are fascinating not only for their existence, but for what they represent - the vested interest that politicians have in the power structure that brought them in.

Add to that a population that is feeling increasingly disengaged from the politics of the nation, and the emergence of "issue group" mobilization which has moved the political dialogue in both Canada and the United States into the realm of shrieking stupidity, and you have an environment where the political and national structures that we are accustomed to appear to be headed for radical change.

What will emerge - in two or three generations' time - I do not know, but I am starting to suspect that we are witnessing the "twilight years" of the Nation-State as it emerged from the ashes of the British Empire and WWI. Democracy, at least as it is practiced in North America, is likely to undergo significant change as a result. It's current form depends heavily upon the notion of the Nation-State, and if that notion breaks down too far, the shape of government will be forced to change.