Thursday, February 09, 2023

On Trans People And Changing Rooms

I swim.  Regularly.  It’s my preferred form of exercise for a variety of reasons.  I like to think the staff and other patrons at the pool know me, and respect me. We don’t have lots of deep conversations, but we do talk, and I’ve known most of them for years - decades in some cases. I tend to go to the pool midday, and it’s not uncommon for a school group to be getting out of the pool as I’m changing and going in - it’s kind of how scheduling works, and the public swimming pools in this city are pretty busy places. 

So, on Monday, after I got home from my swim, I started seeing a story from a rag called “The Western Standard” (The Western Standard is a right wing propaganda mill currently owned by Derek Fildebrandt, but started by Ezra Levant in the wake of the collapse of the Byfield family’s “Alberta Report” publication).  The story recounted an alleged incident where some anonymous father was incensed that there was a transgender woman in the women’s changing room when his daughter might have been in there.  

There are a number of red flags that go up on this story that need to be discussed. 

- The anonymity of the complainant.  It’s extremely rare for a story like that to be so completely ambiguous about who is making what allegations.

- The specificity of the details are lacking, and what details there are don’t exactly make sense, especially if you know anything about transgender people.

- The story closely mirrors one from Saskatoon that came out a little more than a week before.

- To put it kindly, the articles rely on the oldest accusation levelled at LGBTQ people:  “they’re coming for your children”. It was false when it started, it’s false today.

* I’m not going to link directly to Western Standard for these stories - I consider them hate literature.  I have taken copies of them into my records for future consideration.  I will provide a few screen grabs here to underline my points. 

Yesterday, snooping about further online, I discovered that (surprise, surprise), that there is now a campaign to organize protests at this pool demanding changes to the policies “because ‘men’ shouldn’t be around little girls” (we’ll come back to this). 

Saturday, February 04, 2023

He’s Not Wrong … But He Kind Of Is

Over on Twitter, I found the following comment: 


He’s sort of right. A rental unit is a rental unit, and yes, people should be able to live there.  

There’s a “BUT” to this, and it’s actually quite a large one.  The problem is that speculator held properties are problematic for renters for a number of reasons.  Most speculators are basically in it for the capital gain somewhere along the way.  That means that they are constantly watching the market with an eye to when to sell so they can skim off their profits while someone else pays their mortgage costs for them (the renter).  

This makes for rental homes that are inherently unstable.  The owner could decide to sell at any time, or in the case of foreign held units, could decide that they want to live there when they come to Canada, and presto, the renter is out on their ear with very little recourse. 

The point that I am making is that this actually creates a very serious problem for renters - you can’t be certain that you will have any kind of stability. This is extremely hard on people who are at the lower end of the income spectrum where they may already be struggling to pay the rent in the first place. Having an owner come along and say “whoops - time for you to move” is both upsetting, but also makes already touch-and-go lives even more precarious. 

What we need to start talking about is the difference between financial speculation in real estate and long term businesses that manage and rent homes to people. The problems in our real estate rental markets are a combination of speculators, foreign owners buying a property to have an “anchor” in Canada, and a lack of political will to actually regulate the rental markets in a reasonable manner. 

The business of residential rentals has as much to do with property value speculation as it does with providing a service that people need. These businesses can be, and often are, skating between speculation and rental as a business.  The result being that renters often find their rents increase at the drop of a hat - “oh, I had to replace your fridge last month, your rent is now $50/month more”, or “I’m increasing your rent by $100 because I can”.  On top of that, so-called “gig rentals” - short term rentals on platforms like Airbnb and VRBO often are more “profitable” for speculators, and they don’t have to deal with all of the complications of longer term rental arrangements - like leases. 

The old idea in Canada has been that you rent for a while as you build up some savings so you can afford to buy a place. We tend to think of these people as young people “just getting started” - they are often students, and so on.  But that is far from the full spectrum of renters out there - there are long term renters for any number of reasons, and they deserve stability in their lives too.

We need to re-think our approach to property, homes, etc. in this country.  If we are going to continue to emphasize buying your own place, then the speculator part of the market needs to be better controlled, and the rental market should be subject to similar constraints to those on mortgages.  Right now a mortgage on your primary home is restricted to ~35% of your income; rent on the other hand can be anything, and often is well over 50% of a person’s monthly income.  

Again, this is one of those cases where the “long term” picture is that no market is perfect, and they almost always need some kind of reasonable regulation in place so that profiteering does not take over. 

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

On Generational Divides

There is a huge generational conflict going on in our society today, and it's mostly "The Boomers" versus every generation that came after them.  The Boomer generation is steadily moving into retirement age, but because it is so demographically huge, still maintains huge political sway these days and that has upset the normal balance of successive generations taking up the mantle of power in mid-life, and society continuing to adapt and change with time. 

Generation X (Gen X) will never substantially have political power. It's far too small, and it's sandwiched between two generations that are much larger. It is also a generation that is politically divided. Half of it is strongly aligned with the Boomer generation (and gives us politicians like Jason Kenney), and the other half is aligned with the Millennial generation for a variety of reasons.  Gen X should have come into its own as a political force in the 2000s as the leading edge of the generation reaches their 30s.  That didn't happen, and won't happen now.  

The Millennials, and now Generation Z (Gen Z), are much bigger demographics - and combined are starting to exceed the voting weight of the Boomer generation ... and they're pissed.  They're pissed with good reason. 

Their parents are the generations that lived through WWII, and decided to build something much bigger for the future. They built infrastructure, social programs, and so on. They aren't perfect, by any means, but they did a lot of positive things which set up their children (the Boomer generation) for amazing levels of success - and there's no doubt that the Boomer generation has been phenomenally successful. 

So what happened?  The 1980s happened, that's what.  The 1980s is when the boom generation discovered it had political muscle. However, by that point in time, most of them were also starting to understand that infrastructure costs money to maintain, as do social programs. Money that comes from *gasp* taxes. They looked at the hunk of money being removed from their paycheques each month and decided that was too much. 

They elected politicians like Reagan and Thatcher, who happily went to work shredding everything from regulations to taxation on the basis of popular vote demanding "lower taxes". They did this and in the process happily passed the resulting "business opportunities" on to their buddies who became fantastically wealthy - creating a new class of aristocrats. 

The resulting moneyed power structure then decided that businesses had no obligation to their employees, and more specifically, that employees were disposable. The idea of career jobs vanished, and suddenly you could find yourself fired at the drop of a hat (often because someone decided you looked at them the wrong way). Wages stagnated, while living costs continued to rise. Soon, it became impossible to buy a home and raise a family on one salary, you needed 2 professional salaries; now housing prices are reaching the level where paying off your home is rapidly becoming a multi-generational affair. 

Infrastructure was only maintained if it was "profitable" to do so. Look at urban transit it most North American cities - it's essential, but absolutely minimal. Where I live there is an entire quadrant of the city where you essentially pay a "car tax" to live there - no car, you don't live there because it's almost impossible to function without one.  Yes there's transit, but it's so minimal that few use it because it takes huge amounts of time to get anywhere. 

... and then there's the privatized health care costs. More of an issue in the US than in Canada (although conservative politicians here are trying very hard to change that), health care insurance premiums are as brutal a cost as child care costs can be.  

Now, how is this the "fault" of the Boomers?  Individually it isn't.  There are plenty of individuals in that group that don't think that way. It's the abandonment of the collective that is the bigger problem. Collectively, the Boomer generation decided to vote for the politicians that started the process of dismantling things. They didn't do this alone, either. A good portion of the "Silent Generation" became increasingly conservative as they moved into retirement, and probably half of Gen X followed along with the Boomers, without really understanding what was happening. 

Today, we have two generations of people who are looking at a social infrastructure that is in tatters - making life even more precarious, wages that have stalled for at least 30 years, and capital infrastructure that is crumbling both in urban and rural areas.  Live in rural areas, and access to Internet and Cellular service is sketchy at best; live in urban areas, and while there's access, things are crumbling from a lack of routine maintenance being done. 

Are the Millennials and Gen Z folks right to be upset? Absolutely. A culture of "every one for themselves" took hold in the 1980s, and now what's left are the scraps. Jobs are tenuous at best, wages are stagnant, education costs more than most people can afford, and so on. Of course they're pissed - and they probably don't even realize why they're pissed because they grew up when everything was being allowed to fall apart.  Falling apart is all they've ever known. 

Individually, plenty of the Boomer generation can justifiably say "it wasn't me", but taken as a group, they chose the path we are currently on back in the 1980s, and regrettably, the die-hards from that era are still clinging to power in an effort to further their goals. That's part of why we have politicians like Mitch McConnell still around - and their goals are not benign.

I should note that what I am laying out here are some of the events and patterns which create the perception among later generations that the Boomer generation has "screwed them over". You can argue all sorts of things in counterpoint, but I don't think those arguments are likely to mitigate the perceptions very much. The point is very much that there are features of the past which are seen as setting the stage for today, and not in a positive way. 

Sunday, January 29, 2023

So ... The Social Woes Of Today Are The Fault of Whom?!

The political right wing's inability to understand things beyond simplistic bromides has always surprised me.  I get that it makes for easy sound bite politicking, but seriously, the conclusions drawn are often laughable in their implausibility.

Then we come to today's entry in "what stupidity will they say today?":  The Rise of the Single, Woke (and Young) Female.

Thursday, January 26, 2023

Danielle Smith's Magical Email Investigation

So, last week very serious allegations of the Premier's office attempting to intervene in the prosecutions resulting from the Coutts blockade last year. By Saturday, the Premier's office was going to "investigate" by reviewing the GOA e-mail servers.  On Monday, the Premier issued a "we found nothing" statement. 

There are more than a few problems with this approach. 

Monday, January 23, 2023

Spring Election?

Are Canada's conservatives lining up for a federal election this spring? 

Predicting such things is a bit like scrying, but there are signs that lean that way.  

First are some questionable polling numbers which show the CPC getting very close to minority government territory, even while their current leader seems about as well liked as half a worm in your apple. This combined with the NDP apparently riding high in the polls is interesting. Years ago, I realized that the conservatives in Canada only win when the NDP starts rising in the polling. (* I'm not going to spend time here on a detailed critique of Poilievre and Singh as leaders of their parties - that isn't the point of this post *)

I say that the polling numbers are questionable for a few reasons. First, the general sampling strategy for polling these days is increasingly problematic from a statistical methods perspective, and second it's getting increasingly difficult to access fundamental materials like the questions asked.  The latter issue makes it very hard to assess whether a given poll is done with "push polling" tactics or not. 

The recent election in Ontario was an interesting case of the headlines for months pushing a polling-based narrative that "the conservatives have it all sewn up, and sure enough, Doug Ford's OPCs won handily - with one of the lowest voter turnouts in years. The argument can be made that the media campaign was designed to depress the overall vote - which always favours conservatives. 

The next sign comes out of Alberta. In theory Alberta is heading into an election this spring with newly-minted Premier Danielle Smith leading the incumbent UCP. Except the UCP is far from "united", and Ms. Smiths first months in office have been plagued by a series of missteps on her part that have many wondering if she is even suitable for office at all. 

For the last couple of months, the Alberta government has been flailing about trying to pick a fight with Ottawa. First it was the so-called "sovereignty act", then it was over LNG exports, and most recently over the federal government's proposed "just transition" legislation. These "fights" are intended to tee up an easy win in Alberta for Poilievre, who will be able to simply say he will stop the feds from "blocking Alberta", and presto, the conservatives have an easy 20 odd seats. 

However, given the bizarre behaviour of Danielle Smith, a UCP victory in a spring election is anything but a sure thing at the moment. Therefore, while the UCP fosters squabbles with the incumbent LPC government federally (sucking up oxygen for real issues), a federal election would also serve as a distraction for an Alberta electorate fatigued by a constant rush of missteps and scandals on the part of a UCP that is barely holding itself together. 

So, the second sign of a potential election call is in fact the chaos in Alberta which both the UCP and CPC stand to benefit from. 

The third sign is perhaps more important - and it's the ramping up of rhetoric in conservative aligned news media. In particular, I'm poking at PostMedia here. Long a part of the conservative propaganda machine, PostMedia has been ramping up both in its content, as well as how it is promoting itself on social media like Twitter. 

A quick glance at the National Post's front page online this morning turns up 2 columns about "free speech" (mostly roiling around Jordan Peterson), two columns which are designed to whip up more moral panic over transgender people, a bunch of "the world is falling apart" articles based on Ukraine, a handful of articles implying that the Liberals are corrupt, and a few praising Doug Ford for "innovating health care" by privatizing it.  

I think you get the picture - the conservative media is now lining up to take a broadside shot at the Trudeau-led LPC, in hopes of tipping a few more votes their way. 

What's harder to read is whether there are enough votes in the opposition parties willing to topple the current government.  While the CPC and NDP might be willing, that's only 144 votes, and they need support from the BQ - and it's not at all clear to me that the BQ sees a gain in going to the polls at this time. 

Regardless, there are definite signs of a move to kick off an election this spring.  Whether it happens or not is another matter. 

Honest Conservative is an Oxymoron in Canada

 Way back in the 90s, Preston Manning admonished Reform party candidates as follows:  " Don't tell voters what you really believe, ...