Spring Election?

Are Canada's conservatives lining up for a federal election this spring? 

Predicting such things is a bit like scrying, but there are signs that lean that way.  

First are some questionable polling numbers which show the CPC getting very close to minority government territory, even while their current leader seems about as well liked as half a worm in your apple. This combined with the NDP apparently riding high in the polls is interesting. Years ago, I realized that the conservatives in Canada only win when the NDP starts rising in the polling. (* I'm not going to spend time here on a detailed critique of Poilievre and Singh as leaders of their parties - that isn't the point of this post *)

I say that the polling numbers are questionable for a few reasons. First, the general sampling strategy for polling these days is increasingly problematic from a statistical methods perspective, and second it's getting increasingly difficult to access fundamental materials like the questions asked.  The latter issue makes it very hard to assess whether a given poll is done with "push polling" tactics or not. 

The recent election in Ontario was an interesting case of the headlines for months pushing a polling-based narrative that "the conservatives have it all sewn up, and sure enough, Doug Ford's OPCs won handily - with one of the lowest voter turnouts in years. The argument can be made that the media campaign was designed to depress the overall vote - which always favours conservatives. 

The next sign comes out of Alberta. In theory Alberta is heading into an election this spring with newly-minted Premier Danielle Smith leading the incumbent UCP. Except the UCP is far from "united", and Ms. Smiths first months in office have been plagued by a series of missteps on her part that have many wondering if she is even suitable for office at all. 

For the last couple of months, the Alberta government has been flailing about trying to pick a fight with Ottawa. First it was the so-called "sovereignty act", then it was over LNG exports, and most recently over the federal government's proposed "just transition" legislation. These "fights" are intended to tee up an easy win in Alberta for Poilievre, who will be able to simply say he will stop the feds from "blocking Alberta", and presto, the conservatives have an easy 20 odd seats. 

However, given the bizarre behaviour of Danielle Smith, a UCP victory in a spring election is anything but a sure thing at the moment. Therefore, while the UCP fosters squabbles with the incumbent LPC government federally (sucking up oxygen for real issues), a federal election would also serve as a distraction for an Alberta electorate fatigued by a constant rush of missteps and scandals on the part of a UCP that is barely holding itself together. 

So, the second sign of a potential election call is in fact the chaos in Alberta which both the UCP and CPC stand to benefit from. 

The third sign is perhaps more important - and it's the ramping up of rhetoric in conservative aligned news media. In particular, I'm poking at PostMedia here. Long a part of the conservative propaganda machine, PostMedia has been ramping up both in its content, as well as how it is promoting itself on social media like Twitter. 

A quick glance at the National Post's front page online this morning turns up 2 columns about "free speech" (mostly roiling around Jordan Peterson), two columns which are designed to whip up more moral panic over transgender people, a bunch of "the world is falling apart" articles based on Ukraine, a handful of articles implying that the Liberals are corrupt, and a few praising Doug Ford for "innovating health care" by privatizing it.  

I think you get the picture - the conservative media is now lining up to take a broadside shot at the Trudeau-led LPC, in hopes of tipping a few more votes their way. 

What's harder to read is whether there are enough votes in the opposition parties willing to topple the current government.  While the CPC and NDP might be willing, that's only 144 votes, and they need support from the BQ - and it's not at all clear to me that the BQ sees a gain in going to the polls at this time. 

Regardless, there are definite signs of a move to kick off an election this spring.  Whether it happens or not is another matter.