Dion's Goose Is Cooked

Regardless of how you feel about Stephane Dion, his political career is over. Politics is a harsh game, and it doesn't give people many 'do over' opportunities - especially not those who step into the leadership of their party.

Two things in today's Globe and Mail are particularly interesting:

Dion ignored advisers' advice, preferring to act as 'a lone wolf'

So it was a combination of factors that cost the Liberals so dearly: Mr. Dion was not connecting with voters and his Green Shift was unpopular.

“The Green Shift was a millstone around his neck,” the Dion adviser says.

In fact, he had been counselled in the spring by his senior advisers, including campaign manager Gordon Ashworth, not to use it as a major election piece.

That's consistent with Dion's background. He's an academic - used to charting his own path and dragging a handful of promising grad students along for the ride. That's quite different from a political party on the national stage - a place where even if the party leader is a strong personality, a degree of humility needs to be applied within the party - recognizing that the party structure exists to put people around the leader who can help fill in the blanks - the leader is not all-knowing (in spite of Harper's apparent beliefs)

The second piece of some interest is titled "Key Liberals send out feelers for Dion's job".

Meanwhile, people close to MPs Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy and Dominic LeBlanc, former deputy prime minister John Manley and former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna were contacting influential party members to test the waters.

There's only two in that list that I would consider worth the time - Kennedy and Ignatieff. Not because I necessarily agree with either of them or necessarily like them, but rather I'm looking at their ability to stand 'toe to toe' with Harper and slap him about when he starts playing thug.

If the Liberal party is smart about this, they'll make the leadership race to replace Dion brief - 3 months at the outside - and pick a sitting MP - someone who, on day 1 can, and will, stand up in the House of Commons and take Harper to task - and stick to it.

Harper Apologizes?

Sort of...they edited the offending website, but it's not like the Con$ have had the grace or brains to shut the website down.

No, instead, they continue to play from the Karl Rove "lie, smear and distort as long as possible" playbook. In short, the Con$ continue to demonstrate that not only are they utterly classless, but that they have no meaningful platform - they ran out of script 18 months ago, and the script that's left is the one that Big Daddy doesn't want to admit exists.

It's the script embodied by bill C-484, the cutbacks to the very programs that benefit women and minorities, and recent attacks on the arts. All done with the cheering of C. McVety and the "social conservative" set (more accurately the Regressive Conservatives).

Not Thinking It Through

Wow, this bunch sounds suspiciously consistent with the typical conservative mentality with respect to environment issues these days.

“But in the North, there really are no alternatives for us in Nunavut to turn to, to get away from diesel generation for power and for heat,” he said.

Okay. Fair enough, but isn't the point here to get people to find better ways to do things? We know that as long as people have an "easy" answer, they won't look for more innovative solutions - and the "can't do nothin', it'll hurt" line has been coming from the right wing for years - based largely on fear.

A little digging about turns up that Premier Fentie leads the Yukon Party - which is (surprise, surprise) - "conservative" in its leanings. Premier Okalik has no official party affiliation, but I have to imagine that he is being influenced heavily by Fentie on this one.

Regardless, for years, it has been the residents of the Arctic regions that have been sounding the alarm over climate change. Now, someone starts proposing ways to nudge things in the right direction, and the first thing out is "not what we wanted"?

“We see instead a more productive or sensible solution to combatting the impact of climate change, such as making strategic investment in alternative energy sources such as hydro electricity, wind power and bio-mass.”

Well, boys. You're in charge up there. Start investing. It's pretty simple - come up with alternatives and make them happen. The sooner you do, the sooner that a 'carbon tax' model becomes a moot point.

Ironically, if they had been paying attention, they would have noticed that a big part of the Green Shift model Dion is proposing in fact directs resources heavily into additional technology research and development to overcome precisely the challenges that the Canada's Arctic faces.

I don't want to be overly dismissive of the challenges that living in Canada's Arctic presents - but if we are going to move things forward, all Canadians need to take some ownership - it's far too easy to point the finger at "somebody else" and insist that they carry your burden.

Nanos On Dion's Green Shift

Nik Nanos has an interesting take on Dion's 'Green Shift' strategy here:

In regards to the political rewards, the Dion proposal will likely have appeal among Green Party and NDP voters who are environmentally conscious and who are looking to block another Harper mandate. With the Conservatives and the Liberals neck-and-neck, this may incrementally tip the balance in favour of the Liberals, if they can remain united behind this policy and their leader.

Likewise, the policy will likely shed a new spotlight on the Conservative approach to the environment. After the Conservative attacks subside, expect Canadians to shift their focus on the Harper government’s track record and approach to the environment. If that transpires, the short term Conservative advantage may turn to a disadvantage.

I'm cautious about the political success of Dion's plan, in part because the Liberals have not made me very happy on other fronts this past session, and in part because I'm not so sure about the timing.

Nanos' evaluation of the situation is possibly the most reasonable I've seen put forward. Whether it is what actually unfolds over the summer months remains to be seen.

Green Shift: Policy versus Non-Policy

I've been somewhat reluctant to comment on the Liberal Green Shift Plan this week because I simply haven't had the time available for me to sit down and think past the rhetoric and look at the policy platform as it is presented.

After reading through the plan itself, and thinking a bit about some of the statements by the HarperCon$, and Dion's response.

Stepping aside from the partisan politics whirling through Ottawa these days and looking at the policy itself, it is an interesting model that Dion's team has put forward.

For years, critics of environmental protocols like Kyoto have sat on the sidelines and heckled - whining that cutting environmental emissions is going to be too hard on the country's economy. The 'Green Shift' policy attacks that criticism head-on, and through the most directly visible ways that most people experience government's hand - taxation.

Essentially, what the Liberals are proposing is a shifting of the tax burden - away from individual earnings, and placing it firmly in the hands of those whose actions impose high, long-term public expenditures to remediate. Whether we are talking about abandoned mines, or oil and gas wells that have been abandoned, often the "owners" of these properties either no longer exist, or the shifting sands of mergers and acquisitions has left the property in a no-man's land. The reality is that the cleanup of these properties lands squarely in the taxpayer's lap - after the fact.

While one might argue that my example is unrelated to going after a Carbon Emissions tax, the fact is that we face serious consequences if we do not work actively to make our collective carbon footprint smaller, and one of the most direct ways that government can intervene is by moving the economic burden towards those who produce the carbon load.

It's clear to me that this is one facet of a far reaching view of government policy as a means to influence the broad spectrum of public activity. The Green Shift is not a comprehensive environmental policy, but instead is a piece of policy intended to address the very real issue that simply slapping another tax into place is not going to have much effect other than being a damper on the economy. (and it would - if steps to counter-balance the impact of the new tax didn't exist in the framework)

In a policy designed to address the economic issues of changing Canada's GHG footprint, I have no reason to expect that specific targets are part of that policy.

I find it somewhat amusing that Harper and his ideological "clones" are trying to portray Dion's strategy as a "tax grab", and as a "NEP II" policy. For a party that is supposedly governing Canada, it seems to me that Harper is once again playing the role of Leader of the Opposition instead of governing.

Where is the Conservative environmental policy? Where is the government's legislation to implement that policy? Oh right - it DOESN'T EXIST!

All we've seen out of the HarperCon$ in matters of environmental policy and legislation are "do nothings" that postpone doing anything material until long after most of the current generation is dead, or policies that kowtow entirely to the interests of large corporations.

I'll give Dion this much - in the face of the HarperCon$ whose sole goal seems to be to ape the BushCo Rethuglicans at every turn, he is at least putting forward actual policy to address real issues. As opposed to the self-inflating, ego stroking that the HarperCon$ are engaging in.

Since Harper seems so willing to oppose the concept Dion's putting forward, and so unwilling to suggest alternatives, I suggest that voters return Mr. Harper to the opposition benches at the first opportunity. His role in parliament should reflect his behaviour - and his behaviour is entirely that of the oppositon, not the government.

Dear Stephane: Show Us You Mean It

Okay, Stephane. You've drawn your line in the sand, now stand by it.

The voters that would naturally back you are now looking for you to show us that you have something resembling a spine to stand up for the rights of Canadian women to control their reproductive destiny and their bodies.

Dear Liberals:

It's way past time to do your job as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Sitting on the sidelines on one confidence motion I can accept - and even consider it brilliant tactics. Doing it every time there's a confidence motion just makes you look bad.

Propping up the HarperCon$ by tacit support is not doing the Canadian people any favours. This is a government that needs to be held to the fire - and if that means you stage the living hell out of confidence votes so that they only get through by one vote, then that's what you do.

Perhaps I'm old-fashioned, but absenteeism from the House of Commons looks bad - sort of like skipping class did in high school. It's time to start showing up and being effective - and if that means shouting down this bunch of thugs currently sitting in the government benches, then do it.

If Mr. Dion isn't able to bring himself to do what needs doing, then it's time for him to step aside and let others take the helm.

Stephane, It's Time ...

I like Stephane Dion. I don't have a problem with his English (my French is much, much worse!), generally speaking I like what he has to say and his obvious intelligence.

However, it's becoming more and more clear that he has not been able to heal the rifts in the Liberal party, nor does he appear to have the ability to effectively counter the tactics of the Con$.

I believe he's a good man, and in a different time would be an excellent leader - but Dion's era is not today. The guttersnipes of today's politics are not his natural habitat, and unfortunately he isn't a compelling enough figure in his own right to persuade others to follow him beyond the attraction of his ideas.

Dion has taken some good shots at the Con$, but he's not consistent about it. He doesn't appear to get the idea that in today's world, you have to find a stance and hammer on it. It's not like the HarperCon$ haven't provided more than enough fodder to go after.

Unless I miss my guess, the failure to establish a message and stick to it is a big part of the reason for the continuation of the rifts in the party.

Did Dion See His Shadow?

Or is it six more months of Tory Winter?

The by-election results across Canada last night weren't exactly terribly convincing of anything for the Liberals. But then again, as much as I like Dion for his intellect, he hasn't exactly convinced me of much in recent months.

Perhaps Dion wants an election on "ideas" (and as someone who desperately wants a better grade of politician in the House, I'd love to see it), but the fact is that we need someone who is willing to throw Harper's BS back in his face - as hard and as fast as he can produce it.

You don't "play nice guy" with bullies and thugs - they don't get it. Harper has assembled a government that reminds me far too much of the roving band of thugs that came from a nearby Junior High school when we first moved into the neighborhood I grew up in. That was the year that I learned that thugs neither understand nor respect intelligence. The only thing they understand is a bigger club - preferably one that delivers a wallop to them that they'll never forget.

Dion's going to have to become a whole lot scrappier in the public arena if he wants to bring Harper down a peg or ten - something that so far I haven't seen any evidence of.

Meanwhile, my erstwhile MP, Jason Kenney, finally deigned to send out one of his infrequent communications to the constituency - this time in the form of a "do you support Bill C-2" questionnaire. As usual, the "questionnaire" is a one question "Have you stopped beating your wife yet?" special - surprisingly typical for the HarperCon$, and utterly meaningless drivel, bragging about the "strong leadership" of the HarperCon$ - *hurk!*

The materials out there to take the Con$ down with - it's up to Dion and the other opposition leaders to actually use it. (and yes, that includes Jack Layton - who has been far too busy sniping at the Liberals to bother worrying about the ineptitude of the HarperCon$)

Dear Stephane,

It's time to grow a spine and bring down the HarperCon$ - on their track record for transparency and honesty.

Not only have you stood by while Bill C-484 was before the house for first reading; but you have also allowed a crime bill so deeply flawed to pass with barely a comment. Now, we find the Con$ sliding significant changes to the immigration act into the budget implementation legislation.

This is happening to subvert democracy, to stifle debate. Like Harper's "SLAPP" lawsuit over the Cadman affair, it is simply another example of how the Conservatives lack the fundamental honesty and openness to govern. It is time to bring them down - allowing Harper to govern one day longer than absolutely necessary is bad for Canada and Canadians.

... not that I'm holding my breath that Dion will actually do something...

So, PMSH, Who's Paying For This ?

So, Harper's gone ahead with his lawsuit against the Liberals over the Cadman affair.

The first thing I'd like to know is just who is paying Mr. Harper's legal expenses here. It better damned well not be the taxpayers of this nation.

Second, I'd like to point out that considering the kind of crap that his bunch have thrown about in their 'attack ads' aimed at Dion, I wonder how much of those ads counts as libelous using the kind of farcical sophistry that Dear Leader has adopted to justify his lawsuit against the Liberals. I can only imagine.

Not only is it extremely rare for the PM to sue anyone while sitting in office, it's beyond rare to sue the opposition in a sitting parliament.

From where I sit, this looks like still more thuggery from a two bit PM who has shown repeatedly that he can't handle one bit of criticism aimed his way. As Canadians, we should be worried about this lawsuit, as it tells us not only something about the character of the current government, but it also is nothing more than an attempt to ensure that an issue related to this government is not discussed openly in the public eye.

Well, It's a Start...

Dion is at least beginning to seriously call Harper out on bad policy and inept governance.

“We came from leader to laggard. Canada is not any more leading the way. Canada is standing in the way,” Mr. Dion said.

It's a start - now, given the number of policy turdlettes that Harper's dropped around lately, there's lots of fodder for Dion to go after.

In a question-and-answer session with the riding presidents, Mr. Dion suggested that Canada might now be too late to meet the emissions-reductions targets set for the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol, from 2008 to 2012. He said if he took power, he would establish a plan to come close so that Canada will be able to catch up when a second phase begins in 2012.

Okay, that sounds good, but the problem for Dion is to put forward what that plan might be. There is a legitimate degree of caution that must be exercised. As the US economy softens, it will affect Canada's economy. This becomes another variable in a complex dance where pollution and CO2 emission limits have to be balanced against other aspects of the economy. Dion will need to show the public that he understands the balance and has coherent ideas that go beyond the current Conservative policy of deferring any action until our children are in mid-life.

An Intriguing Tactic

If you paid any attention at all to the machinations of PMSH in recent weeks, especially with regards to the throne speech it has all been structured around Harper's attempts to create a situation where he has a series of clubs with which to beat the Liberals in an election.

Most - if not all - of it has been focused on creating a situation where Harper can accuse the Liberals of being inconsistent, arguments along the lines of "Well, you voted for the throne speech, so why are you objecting to it now?". This is typical of a man whose thinking is so clearly absolutist. (Win/Lose, there is no such thing as "compromise" in Harper's mind)

Well, at least on the Throne Speech, it appears that Dion came up with an absolutely appropriate counter move:

Instead, Dion said, he would introduce amendments to the speech. If those are rejected, the party would abstain, allowing the throne speech to pass.

Dion's response is a bit passive-aggressive in its nature - abstaining from a vote neither endorses nor condemns the throne speech, which does free Dion to go after Harper hard and fast on issues without the Con$ being able to resort to their usual tactics.

However, when you are dealing with a man whose tactics are those of a verbal thug, it's quite appropriate to turn the tables by taking the obvious clubs away from the thug.

This appears to be a good tactical maneuver on the part of the Liberals, now the question is whether they can parlay the small advantage they have just gained into something more substantial - by holding Harper accountable for his own lies, deceit and inconsistencies in policy.

Quebec ByElection Results

Interesting - in spite of the hoopla in the media, I'm not so convinced that anybody actually "won".

The more I look at the outcomes, it almost seems like the overall picture is that voters were voting "against the status quo". A long-time Liberal "safe" riding swung to the NDP, the Con$ picked up a Bloc seat, and while the Bloc hung onto a seat it had held in the past, it doesn't sound like a particularly strong victory for them either. While Layton's NDP gained a seat, it's not clear that the NDP actually made gains, or was the vote more a matter of "not voting for the other parties"? (I doubt very much that the NDP will hold that seat after the next Federal election)

Perhaps this statement captured in this mornings Globe and Mail reflects the unsettled mood of politics in Quebec, and large portions of Canada as well:

Another voter leaving the polls, Phil Koropotkin, said he's not impressed with Mr. Dion, and switched from past elections: “I've always voted Liberal, but it's time for a change. There's nobody there that stimulates me,” he said. “I think the leadership is in for a rude awakening.”

In other words, all of the parties have a lot of work to do - last night's byelections seem to reinforce the malaise that voters in Canada as a whole seem to be feeling. (Notable by the utter lack of real traction for any of the major parties in the polls for the last 24 months or more)

Underestimating Dion?

The Sun Media chain has not been a "friend" to Stephane Dion since he came to the leadership of the Liberal Party.

However, Lorrie Goldstein's column this week is unusual.

Says Mr. Goldstein:

The tougher but more eye-opening one is 1999's Straight Talk -- a collection of Dion's speeches and writings when he was Canada's unity minister, following the near-disaster of the 1995 Quebec referendum.

Reading these pieces, you quickly discover that Dion is, like Harper, scary smart.

His speeches, letters and essays -- most given when he first entered Jean Chretien's cabinet on the advice of Chretien's wife, Aline -- literally demolish the separatists' arguments.

No wonder they hate him. He's smarter than they are.

Hmmm...interesting. I may have to hunt down a copy of that book.

Think about that. At that time Stephane Dion -- who had followed his father's footsteps into academia -- was a political neophyte, whom the separatists were calling the most hated man in Quebec.

He was being depicted as a rat. Then his father, whom he clearly loved, dies in a terrible accident and his critics imply his father committed suicide because of him?

Never mind that Leon Dion wasn't a separatist and was proud of his son. What a cheap shot.

Even a strong person might understandably have said, "who needs this?" and retreated from politics.

Dion stayed. And fought.

To any Conservative (or Liberal) who thinks this guy isn't tough enough to be prime minister, maybe you'd better think again.

Interesting indeed - especially when we have a Prime Minister running around playing autocrat and succeeding primarily in alienating Canadians in various regions - simply by opening his mouth.

I think Dion is a leader that people could grow to respect - unlike Harper for whom time is clearly his enemy.

Law, Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Stephen Harper

Unless you've been living under a rock recently, you'll know that MPs voted to allow two unused clauses of Canada's post-9/11 "anti-terrorism" laws to lapse.

Now, we have to start asking the question: Why does Stephen Harper insist that Canadians must "give up" civil liberties such as due process when detained?

"The Liberals chose internal caucus politics over the national security of Canadians," he said Tuesday.

No, actually I'd say Dion and the rest of the opposition MPs made a very principled stand in favour of Canadian civil rights and liberties.

Law enforcement and intelligence in Canada have had 5 full years to demonstrate that such laws are useful tools. They haven't used them, and arguably, do not need them at this time. I don't like the idea of leaving a little turd lying around in law that can be used to lock someone away arbitrarily because the government doesn't like who they're talking to.

Harper is trying to play this as a political smear - something he started last week when he slimed MP Bains in the House of Commons, and had Minister Nitwit post this bit of partisan crap on the "Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness" department website.