The Seemingly Endless Saga Of Canada Buying New Fighter Jets

Those moderately familiar with the seemingly endless saga of replacing our aging fleet of F-18 fighters cannot be faulted for thinking "just get on with the job!".  It has been back and forth for what seems like decades.  (It has been - the F-35 development program started in the 1990s and the debates over whether Canada should buy them have been raging since 2010 or so.  

That was then, this is now.  In 2010, the US was a reliable partner for trade and defence.  Then January 2025 happened, and all that changed. The geopolitical context shifted as the US entered Trump's second term as president.  Alliances that had been tried and true since WWII were called into question, the US started throwing up trade barriers everywhere, and so on.  

Suddenly, Canada's earlier decision to replace the F-18s with F-35s fell into question, and in fact our whole approach to defence did.  An ally we had long looked at as "a good neighbour" suddenly was making noises about annexing Canada.

The parameters of the decision around the F-35 changed enormously.  Concerns about everything from parts supply and maintenance to rumours of Washington having a "kill switch" available that rightly spooked a lot of people.  The newly elected government in Canada, led by Mark Carney committed to reviewing the F-35 decision.  

In response, Sweden's Saab group sweetened its offer around the Gripen - promising partnership and helping Canada set up a military aviation manufacturing capacity, where the F-35 deal ultimately restricts Canada's ability to service its own aircraft, with regular servicing having to be done by Lockheed Martin, and there is no visibility for Canada into the software systems that manage the aircraft.  Suddenly, even if the F-35 is the technologically superior aircraft, it is no longer clear that it would be suitable for Canada, especially if Canada finds itself in a standoff with its neighbour.  

Amid the backdrop of negotiations with the US for a renewed CUSMA, ongoing threats from the Trump administration, and the Canadian government reaching out around the world to forge new trade agreements outside of the multilateral agreements like CUSMA, Canadians are getting increasingly concerned about decisions that would tie us more closely to the US.

Like the Auto Strategy that the government released a few weeks ago, the new Military Strategy released this week marks a sharp turn away from the existing structures that depend so much on the US.  It's an ambitious plan, one that will shift Canada's economic and military posture significantly (and one that will no doubt make certain corners of the Trump Administration angry).  

So, Trump Wants To Decertify Canadian-Built Aircraft

 So, the latest Trumpian temper tantrum is that the US will decertify Bombardier built aircraft.  On the surface, this is as ridiculous as it seems.  Ostensibly, this temper tantrum is over Canada having not (yet) certified several newer models from Bombardier rival Gulfstream.  But is it really?

Consider the following:  only 4 days ago, US Ambassador to Canada Hoekstra was making threats over the purchase of F-35s, and an orchestrated defence of the F-35 started last fall.  The Americans started sweating over the F-35 sale to Canada quite a while ago, and Sweden/Saab's offer presents Canada with the ability to reboot its aerospace industry in a way that we haven't seen since the cancellation of the Avro Arrow project.  

Now, here's where Trump's outburst may in fact finalize Canada's pivot away from the F-35 - let me explain:  

That Is Not A Sales Pitch

According to US Ambassador Hoekstra, if Canada doesn't buy the full fleet of F-35s, "that will affect NORAD".   Coming from the Trump regime, this is another mafia-esque threat that boils down to "do as we tell you, or else".  

Hoekstra might think that yammering on about NORAD, interoperability, and how the F-35 is "the superior aircraft" is some kind of sales flex.  It's actually telling us all that buying the F-35 is ultimately going to be a huge mistake for Canada. 

Every second day, the US is threatening to annex Canada, and as our European friends just learned in the dust-up over Greenland - a deal with Trump made today isn't worth the paper it's written on tomorrow. Why would Canada think we'd be treated any differently if we bought the F-35? 

If I was a defence planner for Canada (I'm not), I'd be looking at the current situation and saying to myself "why would Canada buy a major military asset from a country that is threatening to invade us?".  

The F-35 is very much a "closed, proprietary platform".  What assurances do we have that any planes sent to Canada don't have a "kill switch" buried in their software that Washington can use at will? Fundamentally, there are no such guarantees, and that has been a concern about the F-35 in my mind for a very long time.  

Then there is the servicing of the F-35 itself.  Need parts for the F-35?  Buy it from Lockheed-Martin (now a division of Boeing) ... need major service?  Well that plane now has to be shipped to facilities in the US.  Software updates?  Oh yeah - that's a thing, and those will also have to be installed in US facilities.  Starting to see a problem here, when the US has decided that we're the adversary?  

Hoekstra wants to talk about the F-35 as the "superior aircraft".  Maybe the F-35 is on some levels a "better" aircraft technologically than its rivals - but when the country selling it can so easily turn a fleet of F-35s into "Tarmac Princesses" by choking off parts supply, or by leaving booby traps in the software that enables these craft to fly, technical superiority takes a back seat to "actually flies".

If I were making the buying decisions for Canada's military, I'd be looking at the ground game as it looks today, not how it looked prior to 2016.  The ground game today is very different.  The US has shown itself to be not merely an adversarial nation, but it is one where an agreement today means nothing tomorrow.  This is a purchase that will affect Canada's military for the next 3 decades or more.  Even if the F-35 is technologically "the superior aircraft", that means very little if it effectively hands the US control over the fleet either directly or indirectly.  

I Thought Conservatives Were Supposedly Good With Money

Fighter-jet price tag will approach $30-billion, budget watchdog warns

An explosive independent report on the Harper government’s controversial purchase of new fighter jets estimates their full cost, including maintenance, could hit $29.3-billion (U.S.).

That’s about $12-billion more than what the Tories have been telling Canadians it would cost.

The report by Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page comes at a bad time for the Conservative government, which been dogged by controversy over the acquisition and faces a possible defeat in the weeks ahead.

So, let's see if we've got this straight. Not only did the government sole-source this contract - and in doing so, violated the public tender process that is intended to ensure that Canadians pay a reasonable price for the capital goods our government purchases, but they've been short-changing the long term costs of this program.

Figures released by the government have suggested the total cost of the planes would be $17.6-billion, which includes about $9-billion to purchase them plus decades of maintenance bills that the Tories say would not exceed the annual costs of maintaining the current CF-18 fighters.

Hmmm...let's see - the Conservatives want to minimize the costs, so they are quietly 'underestimating' the costs involved. What do they gain by it? The ability to claim that they are being fiscally prudent - and hopefully retain a few votes.

His report was independently peer-reviewed by non-partisan experts at the United States Congressional Budget Office, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Queen’s University.

Somehow, I'm thinking that the government's numbers are overly optimistic. Any other guesses on how badly the Conservatives have mangled this country's finances?

Accountability ... Harper Style - Part XVI

From Canada's Auditor General:

The price tag for two types of military helicopters has doubled to $11-billion because the Department of Defence low-balled estimates when seeking approval even when it knew that planned design changes would hike costs, Ms. Fraser’s office reported Tuesday.

She also faulted Defence and Public Works for sole-sourcing the Chinook helicopter without properly justifying a decision to skirt a normal competitive process. “What we found in the audit is troubling,” Ms. Fraser said in her report.

Why am I not surprised?

Those processes for competitive bids exist for good reasons - and it's not just about "getting the lowest price". Single source purchases typically mean a very cozy relationship between purchaser and vendor. In the case of government purchases, that also means that the public accountability is less than ideal.

That the HarperCon$ are so eager to jump into single source, non-competitive bid contracts with military suppliers means that not only are the costs going to be higher for Canadians, but we have very little reassurance that Canadian tax dollars are being used to maximize value in making these investments.

I would hope that no one is assessing that as low risk,” the Auditor-General said of the F-35 project as she answered questions on her fall report that sharply criticized Defence purchasing.

The whole business really makes me wonder just whose pockets are being lined by discrete envelopes of untraceable cash?