The Smith Referenda In October

Albertans face a daunting prospect on October 19 - not one, but 10 referendum questions that they will vote on.  On the agenda are a passel of manufactured issues ranging from "control over immigration" to "appointing judges", all topped off with a whipped turd froth of a separation question. 

There are good reasons to be skeptical of all of these referendum questions.  Not the least of which is the complexity of them.  Each one is lengthy reading on its own, and is crafted to confuse the average person reading them.  My intuitive reaction is to suggest that on the basis of the wording being less than clear, that it is utterly appropriate to vote 'No' on the first 9 questions and "A" on the separation question.   That is basically voting for status quo. 

The Clarity Act and Alberta's Tricksy Question

This October, Albertans will vote on a referendum question that arguably rivals the word salad that René Levesque imposed on Quebeckers in 1980 for obfuscation and confusing wording: 

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

I have seen a number of people argue that because Alberta's question does not directly entertain separation, that the Clarity Act does not apply.  I beg to differ.  I think that not only does the Clarity Act apply, but that there is a compelling set of arguments the can be made that would require principles similar to The Clarity Act to apply to all referendums in Canada.

An Exhausting Week In Alberta Politics

This week has been a whirlwind in politics, especially in Alberta. On Thursday, the Premier of Alberta announced what I can only call a farce of a referendum on separating Alberta from Canada.  Then the next day, Premier Smith started talking about rewriting S35 of The Constitution.  

The referendum question Smith proposes is annoying in its obfuscating language, and I think Albertans should be incredibly angry about it.  The question reads: 

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

Reasonably intelligent readers should have already noticed this isn't a "yes/no" kind of question, it's actually two conflicting questions slammed together.  Rumour has it this will be a "select option A or option B" thing on the ballot, but that is still misleading and disingenuous because the second option actively contemplates separation, while simultaneously trying very hard not to look like it does.

Separatists Lose In Court

Alberta's rump of separatists suffered a major setback last week, when a judge overturned the Chief Electoral Officer of Alberta (CEO-A) decision that set the signature gathering process for the "Stay Free Alberta" petition.   If you're interested, the full ruling is here (warning: it's lengthy, and full of legal technical language).

I'm not going to spend a pile of time here dissecting the ruling - while I understand most of what's written in it (I think), a deep dive would be tedious and relatively uninteresting.  At the end of it all, the ruling has the net effect of rendering the entire signature gathering process that has gone on since January this year to be a legal fiction which "never happened".  

How does that work?  Central to the judge's ruling is the declaration that the decision of the CEO-A to grant the petition was "unreasonable", and that the crown had failed to execute any kind of consultation with affected First Nations, therefore the decision itself was quashed.  In doing so, the judge effectively turned the next 4 months of signature gathering into a legal ghost - the paper exists, but the authorization to gather those signatures doesn't and therefore the signatures themselves cannot be considered. 

This is unlikely to be the last we hear of this nonsense though.  

Understanding Alberta Separatist Claims As Gaslighting

The arguments that the Alberta separatists make to justify their positions are carefully crafted to seem almost reasonable, while at the same time are actually distorting the picture entirely to support their claims of "legitimate grievances".  This is a form of gaslighting which Albertans are being subjected to on a scale most have never seen before.  Gaslighting is using manipulation to cause someone to question their own perception of reality (I have linked to the Wikipedia definition because it's in fairly straightforward language without getting bogged down in the details and nuances that you would find in more psychological analyses of the topic.) 

I think it's worth taking apart some of their complaints and explaining exactly how they are twisting things in order to create their arguments, in the hopes of convincing people that Alberta is really hard done by in confederation.  I'll explain in more detail why I see this as a form of manipulation through distortion as we go through the example. 

Implications For Alberta Separatists From Trump's Invasion of Venezuela

 Yesterday, the US attacked Venezuela and captured its president and his wife.  This move has significant implications not only for Venezuela and its people, but it also stands to have significant consequences for Alberta and its oil industry.

To put it mildly, this has major implications for Alberta separatists, and in particular those who are in a great big hurry to make Alberta "the 51st State".  Let's talk about that.

Alberta “Separatism”

 I’m old enough to have lived through both Quebec referendums (to date) on sovereignty, and I’ve watched the sleazy grievance politics of “Western Alienation” attempting to ape Quebec’s situation.  I remember Elmer Knutson and Doug Christie running around western Canada in the late 70s yammering on about how “Ottawa was so terrible to Alberta, and things would be so much better if …”.  More recently, the Premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan have taken up the banner, mostly at the behest of groups like “Take Back Alberta” and a handful of “oilbros” who see their fortunes as threatened by the upsurge in patriotism in the wake of Donald Trump’s return to power. 

What Is The Goal of the Alberta Sovereignty Act?

Since Danielle Smith first started advocating for the so-called "Alberta Sovereignty Act", much digital ink has been spilled over how it's unconstitutional, if not downright illegal under Canada's laws today. 

In general I agree with this perspective, but I also do not think the intent is "to play within the rules" here. After the CPC lost the 2015 election, and Harper effectively "rage quit" elected politics, I suspected that we had not seen the last of his shadow in Canada's politics. 

To be sure, he has remained a controlling influence in the CPC, and I'm fairly certain that his machinations led ultimately to the hamstringing and downfall of both Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole. When Poilievre stepped back from running to replace Andrew Scheer, I wondered what was up.  There was no question in my mind that he had more than a good chance of defeating the rest of the field of candidates - I concluded at the time that Poilievre's sudden "step back" was coordinated by someone close to Harper who rightly figured that the odds of defeating Trudeau were slim, a matter of "keeping one's powder dry" so to speak. 

In 2015, I commented to a sibling that now that voters have made it clear that Harper wasn't going to "rule over them for life", that conservative backrooms were now trying to figure out how to "blow Canada up" politically.  

Since then, we have been bombarded by a series of initiatives. That has been everything from the formation of the UCP (Harper was heavily involved in organizing this) in Alberta, to increasing the coordination across conservative Premiers (it's been fascinating to watch them all start singing from the same song sheet during the COVID pandemic), to a series of political pseudo-separatist initiatives like the so-called "Buffalo Declaration" and the "Free Alberta Strategy". 

The intent is basically to drive division in Canada.  Play up old grievances from the Prairies - which are nursed and fed in Alberta to this day, claim that Ottawa is out to screw Alberta over, and so on. The underlying goal all stems back to Harper's anger over being defeated in 2015 - he was angry at that, and as one might expect, there's a certain amount of "If I can't have Canada, nobody can" thinking going on. 

This looks a lot like the classic domestic abuse strategem - isolate the victims, and convince them that only their abuser actually "understands" them.