Straw Polling in Calgary Egmont and Fish Creek

I drove through the ridings of Calgary Egmont and Calgary Fish Creek this morning, and the "sign poll" was rather interesting.

Calgary Egmont is a riding which is going to be interesting on Monday night. It has an unusual number of candidates running in it - a total of six from various parties.

The real race here is between Jonathan Denis and Cathie Williams, with Craig Chandler doing his best to play spoiler - hoping to at the very least split the PC vote. It's obvious that Chandler's been running hard, and he certainly has a lot of lawn signs out there - if that translates into actual votes, Denis is in serious trouble, as it looks distinctly like Chandler may have taken quite a few of the PC votes away. (I'm sorry to say that I didn't see enough NDP or Green Party signs to suggest they are even factors in the vote this time around)

Of course, given that it's probably less than 10% of the homes that have signs in front of them, the undecided vote (estimated to be over 25% of voters still) is going to decide just what form change takes. Personally, my preference would be Cathie Williams in this race. Her leadership on the Calgary Catholic School Board was impressive, and she strikes me as being capable of being an even-handed, rational MLA.

Denis represents the status quo, and he seems to be a weak candidate in this race, with the PC party's organization having been well shook up by Chandler's machinations last year.

As for Chandler, he's demonstrated repeatedly by his actions that he represents nobody except himself. If you see things his way, great. If you dare differ with the man, don't expect to get much traction. His claims of "unifying" people are highly suspect when you recognize how quickly he switches his tune. Last fall, he was asking citizens to vote PC in the coming election; today, he's telling us to vote for him as an independent candidate? His past actions on a variety of fronts leaves me wondering just how well he's going to represent anyone other than himself.

Calgary Fish Creek is shaping up to be much more intriguing than I had expected. From the amount of signs on people's lawns, Heather Forsyth could be in serious trouble. Laura Shutiak has obviously been running a very aggressive campaign, and people are hearing it.

I personally lost a great deal of respect for Ms. Forsyth when I got her response to this letter I sent her - which more or less blew my concerns off as she had already decided to vote for Morton's bill to enshrine bigotry. Her response was essentially "piss off, I've already decided", instead of actually engaging the issues I raised about the legislation.

Sign wise, I'd say that Shutiak outnumbers Forsyth quite significantly, BUT, the number of signs overall is quite small - probably around 5% of homes at most. To me this suggests that there is a huge undecided vote in the area, and possibly a great deal of apathy as well.