Iraq - Descent into Civil War

It was painfully clear that this day was coming as soon as George W. Bush sent the tanks into Iraq. Sooner or later, the tribal and faith-aligned divisions of Iraq had to surface - and sure enough, it has come to the surface with a vengeance.

Starting with a bombing of an important mosque, things have rapidly spiralled out of control since then with over a hundred people killed in the last day or so.

You would have to have been completely oblivious to reality to believe that once Saddam Hussein was overthrown that Iraq would peacefully move towards a western-style democracy. There are too many tribal divisions in the Middle East, and most of the "national" divisions in the region are artificial borders and do not actually reflect a "real" sense of nationalism for many of the peoples in that region.

Democracy, at least as we understand the term in North America and much of Europe emerged gradually, its current form being a reflection not just of changes in the politics of a nation over time but also the reflection of society in those same politics. Change is a gradual process, one which can take several centuries at the very least.

Imposed at gunpoint by a foreign occupying power, democracy is doomed to fail. I imagine it will be only a matter of months before the United States army either loses control over much of Iraq's urban areas, or the "interim" government collapses as its ability to keep a coherent face on the rule of law and the enforcement of law in the streets.

If the United States Republicans still think they received a "black eye" when Iran's revolutionaries took their embassy staff hostage, they will feel positively violated by what is to come in Iraq. {which will descend into a vicious civil war, with its combatants only uniting to drive out the occupying forces if things are not brought under control in very short order}