First a bit on the Middle East...

A few days ago, I began speculating broadly about the possible future role that Iran may be attempting to forge for itself in the Middle East. What should emerge in the news just yesterday, but this little gem which hints at a first couple of moves in that very direction.

To be sure, for Iran and Syria to ally with each other right now is quite natural, with the United States posturing in a very aggressive manner against both countries. I'm pretty sure that the US military can't manage two new fronts of conflict _and_ keep both Iraq and Afghanistan under control (Oh yes - did I forget to mention the North Korea situation that is bubbling just off the map?)

Even being optimistic, the United States would be hard pressed to expand its military - and equip it - to engage in new conflict on two fronts. (especially in the Middle East - surely the situation in Iraq has taught the current bunch of war-mongers down there a bit of reality???)

I suspect that if Iran can keep the US "at bay" for a while, it could play very well into Iranian ambitions to become the "elder state" in the Arab world.

It will be very interesting to see how it plays out. I suspect that as the Bush administration begins to focus on implementing their "home agenda", that the Arab states will quietly begin to organize their activities while Bush isn't really watching. The sabres in Washington will be rattled when it's convenient - likely when some unusually noxious piece of legislation is being made law.

Meanwhile, if the Arabs are organizing their political alliances, the results could become very interesting. The unknown in this whole mix (to me at least) is Israel. Would Sharon invade Lebanon under the pretext that Israel's security would be compromised by another civil war in that country? It's hard to say, but withdrawal from the Gaza strip would free up Israeli military capability, and if Sharon _thought_ that Syria was the next American target, he might just sieze opportunity. (Of course, if he did, that would not only commit the US and Israel to a long, and bloody conflict, it might well galvanize Arab sentiment against both countries as they would be seen as acting in concert with each other.)