Peace in Israel?

Late last week, the Palestinian people elected Mahmoud Abbas to replace Yasser Arafat.

Today, Abbas makes the obligatory "olive branch offering" to Israel, in a vain hope that a long-stalled attempt to achieve peace in Israel can once again lurch forward.

Sadly, even though Arafat has been removed from the picture, we should not be so optimistic about the influence of hard-line players on both sides. Just as the extreme militant Palestinian organizations have declared that they want to "push Israel into the sea", similarly hard-line views exist within the Israeli power structure.

Arial Sharon is hardly a "moderate" on the Israeli side, and without significant external pressure, he is unlikely to be amenable to the kind of "give and take" that will be required to achieve a settlement that the majority of Palestinians will be prepared to accept.

Sharon's official reaction to Abbas' victory:

The main focus at this stage, following [Sunday's] election, should be Palestinian action on terror.

The Palestinians are still not fighting terror and while [Mr Abbas's] declarations in the framework of the election campaign were encouraging, he will be tested by the way he battles terror and acts to dismantle its infrastructure.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon

This doesn't sound like someone who's really overly interested in negotiating peace. Hard-line groups on the Palestinian side are unlikely to make any moves without corresponding signs that Israel will be equally cooperative.

One of the great condundrums of Israel is that neither side can claim a "moral high ground" - both sides have engaged in behaviours that are best described as apalling. With Israel standing on one side demanding Abbas exercise control over organizations like Hamas, Palestinian people looking for improvements in their day to day lives, and Hamas looking to Israel for either a sign of weakness or compromise, Abbas is truly caught between a rock and a hard place.

Unless the United States places enormous pressure on the Israelis to move forward, I doubt very much that Abbas will achieve much beyond some modest improvements in the lives of average Palestinians. As much as Israel is trying to make the ball appear to be in Abbas' court, the responsibility falls equally to Sharon and his allies to make some real moves as well.