About That October Election

Everybody in the media seems quite convinced that there is going to be an election scheduled for October 19, 2015.

Don't be so sure about that.  Harper has more than a few cards that he can choose to play.

The basis for this October date is the "Fixed Election Dates" act that Harper pushed through parliament in 2006.  Let's be abundantly clear - this act does not oblige the Prime Minister to request the dissolution of parliament in time for this date.  It essentially orders Elections Canada to set up for polling on that date, but there is nothing whatsoever which constrains the Prime Minister or the Governor General's powers with respect to dissolving parliament.

What are the other options that Harper can play out?

1.  Let the current Parliament run through until the mandate dissolves automatically in Spring 2016.

The last election was in Spring of 2011, and therefore the 5 year limit in the Constitution comes into play.  This is an almost unavoidable wall for Harper, as the Constitution doesn't make the dissolution a discretionary power of the Governor General at this level.

2.  Prorogue Parliament Until Dissolution

If Harper decides to let the current mandate run out in 2016, he may decide to prorogue parliament rather than give the opposition a place to readily beat the government over the head with.  Rather than bother with that possibility, he's quite likely to prorogue parliament and then continue to spend taxpayer dollars on his ongoing propaganda campaign.  (He can do all that using "Order In Council" to keep things going)

3.  Drag Canada Into A Shooting War

Harper has been trying to drag Canada into one of several conflicts.  Right now there are two hotspots he's playing this card in - Iraq/Syria/ISIS and Ukraine.  Harper has been pulling out all the stops to make ISIS as terrifying as possible, with the latest volley coming from an obscure Senate committee report.

Other than his ongoing desire to play "War PM", why would Harper be doing this?  Simple - there's a little clause lurking in the Constitution which allows for the current parliament to be extended if there is an "apprehension of war".  Harper has to convince 2/3 of the house to go along with this little charade.  A year ago, I would have said "fat chance" to that going anywhere.  But that was a year ago, before the Liberals voted for Bill C-51.  Today, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals (or a reasonable percentage of them) vote for this motion, out of fear of being called "soft on terror" or something of a sort.

In short, there is very little reason for Harper to call an election for October.  He has plenty of options, and unless he thinks that he can win, he doesn't have to dissolve parliament in time for October 19.  No doubt he is hoping that his rivals will spend enough of their war chests over the summer on the assumption of an October election.

Stephen "Electoral Reform" Harper ...

Remember last fall? When Stephen Harper decided to call a snap election? Yeah, I thought you might.

Well, it seems that someone has seen fit to drag Harper into court for breaking his own fixed election dates law.

"It was exactly the mischief the bill was designed to stop," lawyer Peter Rosenthal, representing Democracy Watch, told Justice Michael Shore.

The only way an election could have been called then was if the government had fallen on a vote of no-confidence, said the group's founder, Duff Conacher.

"We believe that the prime minister should be found accountable because he introduced changes to the law, said they fixed election dates, and then for false reasons called a snap election in violation of those measures," Conacher said outside of court on Tuesday. "And also, we want to prevent future prime ministers from doing the same kind of thing because it’s so unfair."

I agree with the principle that Democracy Watch is arguing, but I don't think they can get much out of it, since the legislation is fundamentally undermined by its own exemptions.

At most, any such judgment is going to be a symbolic slap on the wrist to Harper. Canadians are going to have to punish him for his constant lying and game-playing at the polls.

Was The 2008 Federal Election Illegal?

In reading the December/January issue of The Beaver magazine, I was reminded that in the wake of this past fall's election, Democracy Watch is suing the government claiming that Harper's election call broke the law.

Sadly, I think that Democracy Watch has it all wrong. While I have no issue whatsoever with the claim that Harper broke the spirit of his fixed election dates law, I think that Democracy Watch failed to notice that in fact nothing about that law actually limits the Prime Minister's discretion in asking the Governor General to dissolve parliament. It unquestionably obliges Elections Canada to set up the apparatus for voting on a fixed date, but it at no time obliges the sitting Prime Minister to ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament prior to that date, nor does it demand that the Governor General sign the Writ of Election prior to that date.

Harper did not per se break his own law because his own law has absolutely nothing in it to constrain when an election is called. In fact, the real tragedy of Harper's Bill C-16 is that Canada already has fixed election dates, and has had them since the days of the old BNA Act.

From the Constitution 1867 Act: (Formerly known as the British North America Act)

50. Every House of Commons shall continue for Five Years from the Day of the Return of the Writs for choosing the House (subject to be sooner dissolved by the Governor General), and no longer.

It is only by tradition that our parliaments typically are dissolved somewhere after the end of the fourth year.

Harper's bill C-16 is, in fact, completely redundant, since the constitution already mandates that a parliament has a maximum duration of five years, after which it must be dissolved. All Harper had to do to make his law work was to limit the powers of the PM to demand early dissolution of parliament. He didn't do that.

As a result, although Harper has certainly broken the stated intent of Bill C-16, he actually has done nothing more than demonstrate that he holds Canada and Canadians in contempt. Not only is he woefully ignorant of our traditions and constitution, but he also has shown us that his disrespect for Canada will drive his legislative agenda. Truly ironic for the tradition of conservatism in Canada is to preserve that which is right and good about our nation, not to hold it in contempt.