So, the latest Trumpian temper tantrum is that the US will decertify Bombardier built aircraft. On the surface, this is as ridiculous as it seems. Ostensibly, this temper tantrum is over Canada having not (yet) certified several newer models from Bombardier rival Gulfstream. But is it really?
Consider the following: only 4 days ago, US Ambassador to Canada Hoekstra was making threats over the purchase of F-35s, and an orchestrated defence of the F-35 started last fall. The Americans started sweating over the F-35 sale to Canada quite a while ago, and Sweden/Saab's offer presents Canada with the ability to reboot its aerospace industry in a way that we haven't seen since the cancellation of the Avro Arrow project.
Now, here's where Trump's outburst may in fact finalize Canada's pivot away from the F-35 - let me explain:
First, we know that with Trump, everything is transactional - an agreement today doesn't mean much a week later. That means if Trump goes after Bombardier aircraft today and steps away because Canada changes its tune the way he wants, he'll use that threat again later as leverage for something else that he wants. Since Trump is so "transactional", and has a memory that's only marginally longer than a squirrel's, the notion of best interest simply does not include kowtowing to his wishes. Look at how he's reacted to Canada making a deal with China that restores trade relations to a pre-2020 situation. Before Carney went to China, it was "well, if Canada can make a deal with China, they should do that"; then after Davos, Trump goes on a tirade about how Canada is letting China take over. That's all of a couple of weeks apart.
In other words, Trump's latest round of threats really don't matter - they'll come back, or not, depending on his mood and whether the people whispering in his ear are actually heard.
Second, from a Canadian government perspective, this is another option to not only strengthen the Canadian aerospace industry, but to expand it back into the realm of defence aviation - all while protecting the industry from the predations of a US regime that seems to have no end of appetite for conflict. The F-35 program would continue the status quo of Canada playing "supplier" roles to the F-35 program, but largely forces us to not have a home-grown military aviation option. The Saab proposal turns that on its ear, and enables Canada to bootstrap a domestic defence oriented aviation industry from an already proven success.
Bombardier, the target of Trump's attacks yesterday is a natural candidate to lead the process of setting up manufacturing of the Gripen in Canada - it's an aviation manufacturer with decades of solid experience, and they already know how to run an aircraft manufacturing business. This would mean that while the Federal Government would no doubt end up subsidizing Bombardier during the setup period, it would be part of the money already to be committed to the Gripen program - allowing Canada to safeguard its domestic civilian aerospace programs, and facilitate a much needed expansion.
If Trump was able to get the FAA to decertify Bombardier aircraft (I'm not certain he can), the consequences for American commercial aviation are non-trivial. The Bombardier regional jets are heavily used by major American air carriers, and taking them out of duty would be very costly for air travel in the US. I imagine the pressure on the US government from the likes of American Airlines, Delta, and others will be enormous here. This would be a move which would damage the US economy further, while Canada exercises its options to become more independent of the US.
All ways around, Canada stands to be able to turn the Saab deal into a win that not only strengthens a Canadian industry against the attacks of the Trump regime, but actually gets to re-enter an industry we were pushed out of back in the early 1960s (by US interests who wanted the engineering talent in Canada's aerospace).
In so many ways, Trump's default approach of "I'll tariff everything you do" turns out to be a compelling reason for Canada to sign the Saab deal and proceed. Will Trump be upset? Yup. Does it matter? Not really - at the end of the day, with the Trump regime is going to do what it's going to do. Canada has to act in its best interests, regardless of that. Ultimately, Trump's actions here serve to further isolate the US on the world stage, both politically and in trade terms.
My guess is that while nothing has been said publicly by the Canadian government, they are very close to signing a deal with Saab, a deal which does far more than commit us to the purchase of a bunch of aircraft ... all while Trump and his bully-boy advisors are panicking about how that will impact Lockheed Martin - the manufacturer of the F-35.
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