The Summer Doldrums

After the debates of the recent Canadian Federal election, things seem to have gone a bit quiet in the news. Or perhaps, there isn't anything that seems to be grabbing the attention right now.

In Canada, the health care debate appears to be starting up, but that won't get overly active until this fall. There's a First Ministers meeting coming soon (I'm not sure if it's in July or August). Whatever the outcome of that meeting, the real debate is quite some ways off. I'm somewhat worried about the proposals that Ralph Klein has put forth, but they are still sufficiently vague that I'm going to fish for more details before I draw any solid conclusions. Personally, I don't trust this government at all. They seem to be driven by a particularly nasty kind of ideology lately, and I don't think that makes for good governance.

The US Presidential campaign is beginning to warm up, with John Kerry finally announcing his running-mate, John Edwards. As expected, Bush is dismissive of both candidates. I know that I shouldn't judge a book by its cover - but John Kerry bears a frightening resemblance to Brian Mulroney - I can only hope he is of more noble stock than our former Prime Minister.

On the world stage, the US has "officially" handed over political power to an interim government in Iraq. Given the state of Iraq these past few months, I can't quite decide if that's a good thing, or merely hastening the arrival of civil war in that country. Somehow, the handover feels to me like a bit of political staging - an attempt by Bush and his handlers to remove a key part of his critics' arguments. I don't particularly see how this pseudo victory mitigates the fact that Bush and his cronies appear to have lied to the world to justify their own political objectives; nor does it mitigate the awful events in Abu-Ghraib.

Okay, you toppled a government and instituted an appointed regime - so what? That regime now has to bring a country armed to the teeth to heel long enough to hold "democratic elections". Even with US troops to fill in for the Iraqi police/military, that's going to be a tall order. Many will argue, justifiably, that this interim government is little more than a puppet to Washington's whims, and they will continue to fight - violently - for a government that isn't propped up by US interests.

I suspect that the handover has more to do with creating some appearance on the home front of Bush as a 'liberator'. If the Republicans can successfully cast GWB as a 'Conquering War President', that makes him easier to sell than if they try to proceed on policy and economic record. The handover may also have a second purpose in the re-election. If it starts to look like a serious probability that Kerry will win, I expect some stirring of the pot with respect to either Iran or Syria - inflammatory rhetoric, likely along the lines of 'supporting terror' or whatever. The US can't really afford another invasion right now, but a desperate Bush-Cheney campaign might just try to manufacture a crisis so that they can play the 'hero' card a bit further.

Over the next few months, the scene unfolding in the Middle East will no doubt be influenced by the fortunes of the Bush-Cheney campaign.