How Will Bush Hold On To Power?

The picture is beginning to unfold, with the United States moving into a Presidential election, the Republicans are doing everything they can to stay in power, and the range of activities is astonishing:

Delay the Election

Ostensibly, this is being looked at as a measure to be invoked in the event of some catastrophic event. Of course, 9/11 would be the image they want to evoke, but just what would be catastrophic enough to delay a presidential election? I believe one went off just fine in the thick of WWII, so it would have to be pretty bad before it could justifiably delay voting day.

Cynically, it could be used as a means to defer the vote long enough for unfavorable shock waves to settle down. (or for the President to take steps to 'appear' as a decisive man of action - whatever is expedient at the moment) Particularly worrisome is the similarity that this has to the extension of Consular mandates in the Rome of Gaius Marius (late Republic), an action which ultimately led to rising Imperial Rome replacing the system of elected authorities with an Emperor. (Rome tried very hard to avoid that term, but a spade is a spade...)

Gay Marriage Amendment

This is nothing more than an attempt to split the Democratic vote around John Kerry/John Edwards. The vote on this comes up just before the Democratic Convention in August. Given the polarizing effect of the Gay Marriage debate, will upset a lot of voters, no matter how Kerry/Edwards vote in the senate.

Israel Playing its Usual Hard-line

One would think that events in the Middle East are a long ways removed from the US Presidential election. But are they really? Every time that Israel does something reprehensible, the US imposes its veto in the Security Council to clobber any sanctions. The Bush administration can use the ongoing mess in Israel as a tie back to the so-called "war on terror". (We won't go into the fact that there is much more to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than simple acts of terrorism)

Iraq Continues to Bubble

Like a pot left on the stove, Iraq continues to be just on the edge of boiling over into something far uglier than the current 'armed peace'. I have to wonder if this isn't semi-deliberate - by leaving Iraq slightly unstable, it's relatively easy to 'stir the pot' enough to cause a major problem, and thus allow Bush to continue to play the 'hero president' by giving the impression of being a man of action.

I'm not saying that all of these things are deliberate, or necessarily within the control of Bush and his handlers, but there does seem to be lots there that can be used by an incumbent President to manipulate the picture with - either by trying to make his rivals look bad, or to bolster his own apparent strengths. (At least, those attributes that the voters will see as "strengths") Bush is apparently capable of deriving some kind of populist support, not entirely unlike Premier Ralph Klein in Alberta. That doesn't mean that he's any good at governing, just that he creates an impression that people will vote for.