'Twas the Night Before The Debate ...

... and all through the land, nary politician to be heard. Martin, Harper, Layton and Duceppe have all vanished into the woodwork for a few days. Presumably they are preparing their cue cards for the upcoming debate. Heck, even the various Conservative candidates have managed to avoid creating new potholes for Harper to drive into!

I won't comment on Duceppe - not living in Quebec, I hear very little out of the man, and the reality is that he won't form the next government. The very existence of the Bloc as a party speaks to the "Two Solitudes" that are Canada. I can't say I've ever felt very happy about a party in the House whose expressed purpose is to break up confederation.

The other three leaders all have huge hurdles in front of them for the upcoming debates:

Martin has perhaps the most difficult hurdles to overcome. First, he has to remind the voters (in Quebec especially) that it was under his watch that action was taken over the Sponsorship issues. Second, he has quite a job ahead to convince the voters that the latest incarnation of the Liberal "Red Book" is more credible than past versions. I do believe that Martin _can_ be trusted to continue to oversee balanced budgets with modest surpluses. Of all other things, that has been a consistent part of his behaviour throughout the last decade or so.

Mr. Harper has his own challenges, no less prickly than Martin's. First, Harper has to have some presence on stage. The man's been like visual teflon - every time I see him, I get the impression he doesn't want to be seen. More seriously, he has to demonstrate that the "New and Improved" Conservative Party is in fact moving beyond its old Reform/Alliance roots. Right now, the social conservatism seems to be a cover for a lot of old, hoary beliefs that have been long ago debunked. As much as Harper claims to be an economist, I just can't quite buy into his campaign promises - too much big ticket spending, too many tax cuts - something doesn't balance out here.

As for Mr. Layton, he has a job to do - and it's not an easy one, either. The NDP seems to be continually the "Unhappy Bridesmaid" in our democracy. Layton has a couple of big challenges in the upcoming debates. First, he needs to show people that he is capable of debating with the other leaders without going to extremes. Second, he has to start showing that his party has ideas that are realistic. Sadly, in this part of the world, it is far too easy to see the NDP, and immediately recall the echoes of McCarthy-era propaganda. The NDP has an uphill road to travel, even to make it as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

Excluded from the upcoming debates is the Green Party. I don't think I'd ignore these people. They've made huge efforts to make their platform more mainstream, and it's worth a read. Parts of it still need refining, but they feel like they are aiming for what the Progressive Conservative party used to stand for - back in the days of Peter Lougheed. Socially conscious, and fiscally prudent - with an environmental awareness in the mix. Even though they aren't in the debates this year, I'd keep my eye on where they are going. They may pose a bigger threat to Jack Layton's NDP than to the Liberals or Conservatives, but that's today.

This election, more so than any other I can recall, is about the leadership of the parties. Is Martin in fact able to lead the Liberals forward from what they became under Chretien? Is Layton going to be the man that gets the NDP's ideas into the spotlight? Is Harper going to be able to shed the ugliness of the past incarnations of the Conservative Party? Come to think of it - is Harper in fact a more moderate version of his past self?

For all of the leaders, there is a huge amount on the table in the next couple of nights. Each has much to gain, and as much to lose.