Credibility: Zero

There is little more disappointing than the transparent attempts to "prove" that Iran has nuclear weapons.

Okay, a bunch of smugglers have "plans" for a nuclear weapon of some sort, and maybe they had been talking to the Iranian government. Big deal - at most we have a conjecture that there is something being developed in Iran. Let's be realistic here - anyone with some basic physics these days understands the basic design principles behind a nuclear weapon. It's documented in hundreds of textbooks that are readily available. The extra steps to get from theory to implementation aren't exactly difficult - they are more of a matter of logistics than research.

Even if Iran is actively developing nuclear weapons, it seems to me that's like worrying about whether China, Pakistan or India has nuclear weapons - they all do, and chances are someone is crazy enough to use them. Whether there is an actual threat as a result of any of the involved countries having these weapons is open to discussion.

The issue is never what weapons a country has at its disposal. Instead, one must ask what the intentions of that state towards other states? Iran turned inwards in 1979 and aside from a regional conflict with Iraq, has mostly focused on rebuilding itself and quietly establishing itself as a trading power in the Middle East, well entrenched with both China and Russia.

Does that make it a threat to US interests - beyond the usual goading about Israel, there's little real evidence of that, unless one considers trade with China or Russia to be a threat to the US.

I continue to suspect that the current round of sabre-rattling at Iran has more to do with Republican election strategy than it does sound foreign intelligence and policy decisions.