The United States is giving us a real-time view into the collapse of an empire. The 2024 election cycle will determine whether the final failures happen quickly (and soon), or if there will be a slower series of failings that will eventually render the current American Republic neutered.
Precisely when the collapse begins is a matter of opinion. I think arguments can be made that point to either the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, the election of George W. Bush in 2000, and the election of Donald Trump in 2016. I don’t intend to spend this post making and evaluating those arguments. Suffice it to say that each of those elections resulted in governments that played a significant role in setting the stage for where we are today.
Where are things today? Well … we live in an era where evidence based decision making has been supplanted by conspiracy theories and often outright lies. Conspiracy theories and their proponents are no longer the disheveled guy roaming the streets muttering to themselves. Instead, they are widely disseminated. News media - the so called “fourth estate of democracy” - is dominated by commercial partisan interests.
Then there is the political discourse. What used to be a discussion from different perspectives which could eventually converge on some kind of middle ground has become a polarized “us versus them” war zone. Trust has been destroyed on both sides of the partisan aisle. People in the legislatures don’t see each other as colleagues, they see each other as rivals.
Then we come to the leadership candidates. The United States has come to be governed primarily by old, white, men. Look at the two candidates running in 2024. We have an incumbent who is over 80 today, and his rival is well into his 70s. Seriously - when did the US presidency become a geritocracy? Surely there are hundreds, if not thousands of potential candidates who are a good 20-30 years younger around, yet the parties are coalescing around two people who should be looking to retire and enjoy their last years? I’m not saying that older people don’t have things to contribute, but seriously, there comes a time to step aside and let younger people lead.
Instead, we have a cult built around the utterly insane ravings of Donald Trump, and well - I’m not entirely sure about Biden - he’s basically “not Trump” in this race. That’s how bad it is.
From a “direction of the government” we literally have either “status quo”, or “burn it all to the ground” (the latter driven by conspiracy theories and wild rhetoric to whip up a mob). There is no “middle ground” here. Trump convinced his followers that the 2020 election was “stolen from him”, and that the entire apparatus of government is corrupted. Biden has to find ways to fight that, and I have no idea what that’s going to look like.
There’s basically 3 possible outcomes for the 2024 election:
1). Biden wins a narrow victory again.
In this scenario, I think you will see Trump ramp up the “electoral fraud” rhetoric to his followers. We’ll see another round of unrest coming up to Biden being inaugurated into his second term. It will be messy, but ultimately sets the US on a slower path to the collapse of the Republic. It is possible that during that time, the Democrats will be able to groom a decent successor to Biden who isn’t in their 70s or 80s. If they do not, then whatever is leading the GOP after 2024 is going to win in 2028.
2). One of the two contenders dies or is incapacitated during the campaign
Age is a nasty thing this way. Both candidates are of an age where any number of things could render them unable to finish the campaign, effectively handing a free win to their challenger. It’s a rare occurrence, but given the ages of the contenders this time, one we have to be prepared to consider.
3). Trump Wins
This is the scenario that is far more likely to collapse the Republic very quickly, and in fact is the scenario I will spend most of this post writing about.
