How The CPC Snatched Defeat From The Jaws of Victory on September 20

Last night's election was an object lesson in how the CPC has failed as a party.  Practically speaking, they failed horribly last night.  On paper, they garnered more of the vote than the LPC did (33.9% versus 32.2%).  Yet, they garnered only 119 seats, where the LPC garnered 158.

Why the discrepancy? 

It's pretty simple, really.  CPC support is overwhelming on the Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba).  In that region, they garner easily over 50% of the ballots cast, even when we account for Manitoba which actually votes a little more diversely than Alberta and Saskatchewan do.  

The problem for the CPC is twofold.  First, close to a full third of their support comes out of a region that only provides 20% of the available seats.  Second, is that it means that Prairie regional concerns and perspectives tend to dominate the party's policy platform. 

The popular support issue is fairly simple statistics.  Sure, decades of cultivating a political monoculture in Alberta (especially) has successfully delivered the CPC a "fortress" of predictable seats.  The unfortunate issue that it conceals is that while they have north of 50% of the population in the prairies willing to vote for them, that's really only 10% of Canada's population.  The rest is simply numbers. No matter how well they poll on the Prairies, the fact is that they can't translate that into seats elsewhere.  Polling ahead of the LPC isn't an even measure because the CPC is comparatively weak outside the Prairies. Catastrophically so in Quebec, and bad enough in Ontario that short of a "kick the bums out" mood there, the CPC has trouble translating support into seats.  Where the LPC can form a government when they are polling in the 30s, the CPC needs to poll around 40% to win enough seats outside the Prairies to come close. 

The second part of this story is policy. The "Fortress Alberta" paradigm has also meant that the party policy platform is heavily influenced by perspectives that are common ... in the Prairies ... and not the rest of Canada, no matter how carefully they might try to word things or make it look like the policy reflects other regions.  This isn't intrinsically bad, but it does create the impression among voters that the  CPC really is a regional party. 

A good example of this is the CPC's approach to firearms regulation. We saw O'Toole flip flop around on this issue like a fish out of water. On one hand, he was talking about loosening firearms regulations, then when he got called on it, he flipped over and started talking about "not revoking the ban on assault style weapons ... while a stakeholder review of the policy took place" (side-wink to the gun lobby there). The perspective on firearms draws heavily from a prairie sensibility about guns that isn't necessarily held in urban Toronto. Seeming to be unsympathetic to the victims of various mass shootings (e.g. École Polytechnique, Dawson College) that have taken place in Ontario and Quebec over the years isn't helpful. 

(Note:  I'm not going to go into a detailed analysis of gun policy here, this is merely being used as an example) 

Similarly, in the Atlantic provinces, Harper's snarky quip about a "defeatist attitude" continues to echo out there as an example of how poorly the party understands the economics and realities of living on the east coast. 

Frankly, the CPC has invested relatively little effort trying to understand the politics east of the Manitoba border. The major policy decisions are being made by people whose overall perspective is informed by "the prairies", and a subset of people in Ontario who are similarly minded. 

This isn't new. In the Reform days, the party simply couldn't figure out how to extend their reach west of Manitoba. Efforts were made in this direction, but they really didn't go anywhere until the merger with the PCs, and the party was able to leverage some high profile people from the former PCs.  However, the party largely gave up on Quebec, and really didn't bother much with broadening its policies. So, when Harper left (along with a good percentage of the "big names") in 2015, the party went back to its roots and shed any awareness of how things work outside of the prairies.

The problem is that conservatism on the prairies is infused with a number of elements that prevent the party from actually engaging in an introspective examination of their policies and attitudes.  A number of implacably rigid groups are competing for dominance, and nobody is looking outside to any great degree. 

Broadening their base of support would help, but that isn't going to happen as long as the party is being held back by the various factions that refuse to moderate their perspectives. Until that changes, the odds of the CPC polling much better are slim. They need more than a leader who says they are moderate, they need to stop, spend some real time learning why they aren't making gains outside of the Prairies and (to some extent) BC.