What's Bush Up To Now??

I'm a little surprised - it seems as though Bush & Co. are stirring two pots with a single spoon.

The following article alleges that Iran is developing "ballistic missiles". Supposedly, US intelligence has managed to intercept "technology shipments" to Iran that are destined to become parts of these missiles.

Let's see - a ballistic missile, for all intents and purposes is not much more than a mortar shell with a big rocket booster and some minimal guidance attached to it. Once it passes the peak of its arc, the missile loses power, and falls to earth in more or less the same fashion as a mortar shell or other fairly conventional device. The old German V2 rockets were essentially a form of ballistic missile in their day.

Regardless of what the US is claiming, ballistic capability is NOT NEW. Even inter-continental missiles have been around for the last 40 odd years or more. Hardly something that is particularly difficult for a country to develop or acquire.

However, there's two cards being played here - first, this article plays into fostering the notion in the public mind that Iran is somehow a threat to the United States. (Whether or not it really is). Second, is to further bolster the justifications for burning billions of dollars on "Missile Defense". This latter being the latest hobby horse that Bush is trying to sell Canada on participating in.

This isn't a new concept, according to the Wikipedia articles, Missile Defense has its roots in the late 1950s, and has been bubbling around in the US military circles ever since.

I'm rather concerned with the credibility of the claims made against Iran in the first place. After the debacle that has been Iraq, I'm afraid that my personal 'standard' for acceptable evidence is now quite a bit higher. It's going to take more than just allegations before I believe the assertions. The CIA's track record hasn't exactly been inspiring to date, and after the lies told to the world about Iraq, I don't think anyone should take "their word" for much of anything. I'd be very skeptical of any assertion of real threat from Iran at this moment in time.

However, Bush and Co. are also likely to use this to further bolster their claims that the "missile defense" program they keep bandying about is critical to US's security. I heard some nimwit congress critter talking on CBC today express "dismay" and "confusion" as to why there might resistance from Canada to this program. This is not terribly difficult to grasp really. I think Canada has every right to question the validity of a concept that the US has been trying to put together for over 40 years, and remains disturbingly unsuccessful at making workable. (Of course, the congress critter had to reference 9/11, conveniently ignoring the fact that those events had nothing to do with an inter continental missile, and originated from _within_ the borders of the United States.

The other aspect of the whole program is the assumption of a "real threat" via missile attack. Is there such a threat, or is it a supposed threat. If the threat is real, we need to consider it rather differently than if the threat is merely supposition on somebody's part.

It will be interesting to watch for the next little while to see what direction the US takes things with respect to Iran. I suspect that for the next 6 months to a year, we will see the US continue to thump its war drums rather loudly towards Iran. Whether they actually invade Iran will depend heavily on a few factors:

1. How stable is Iraq following this January's elections
2. How many troops does the US have in the region, and are they ready to undertake a full scale war again. (a big chunk of the last troop count increase came from extending existing tours of duty in the region - that means you are now dealing with fatigued soldiers...)
3. How much clout do Russia and China have? (Not just with the US, but with the Arab world.)

I suspect that overt action against Iran would galvanize Arab sentiment against the Americans - very quickly.

Given that Russia is feeling vulnerable with so many of its former Warsaw Pact allies joining NATO and the EU, Russia may just form new alliances with the various Arab states that it shares borders with, possibly kindling a new cold-war style rival emerging. (No matter what the US thinks it can do with individual countries, it is far more sorely pressed to try and prevent a bloc of countries from developing shared capabilities that would rival the military clout the US currently enjoys on the world stage.