History Repeats Itself

Once again, in Iraq, we are witness to history repeating itself. Just as the Soviet Union failed miserably to control Afghanistan with overpowering brute force, the United States appears to be taking the same approach with the "insurgents" in Iraq.

This past week, the US and its allies have been bombing Fallujah back into the stone age (or before?). Why? For no other reason than the fact that Fallujah happens to be an area where the various 'insurgent/rebel/terrorist/freedom fighter' groups have become relatively entrenched.

This article from BBC today has a few rather interesting quotes:

The people believe they are being targeted because they inflicted heavy casualties on US forces during the siege earlier this year.

They say the Americans are attacking them because of wounded pride. They say they are motivated by revenge.

This is very important, for underlying it is the reality of the Middle Eastern cultures. If you kill someone, you become the sworn enemy of their relatives. Bombs a pretty indiscriminant killers - they kill people, and don't ask about their activities. So, for every insurgent a bomb takes out, it probably kills a half dozen others. Each of whom leaves behind family...

They say Mr Allawi may be a Shia, but this is not why he is at war with Falluja.

They think he simply gives the order to batter Falluja because this is what the Americans want.

This is the second part of things. The American troops are not being seen here as the "peace bringers" or "liberators" at all, but instead appear to be seen as the controllers, and manipulators. Not a good image to have at all.

Unless the American forces (and their allies) can change their image on the ground from being the 'strong arm' people that are manipulating Iraq, they will continue to create more tacit support for the resistance than anything else. In WW II, the German Nazi occupation forces made this mistake, and by doing so gave the peoples of the occupied nations every reason to conspire against their occupiers; similarly, the Soviet Union made the same mistakes in Afghanistan.

Unless there is a dramatic change in both policy and approach towards Iraq, the American forces there are going to find it increasingly difficult to control the situation. They may succeed to a degree by using brute force, but the unique history of occupation in the Middle East suggests that the ultimate result will be failure.